MLB PREVIEW: NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST

BY ADAM GREENE

At last, we’ve arrived to the National League West, a division that’s seen the Los Angeles Dodgers reign supreme for the last decade. Will 2023 flip the script with a charging San Diego Padres club?

Here’s how I see it shaking out.

NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST

1. LOS ANGELES DODGERS

Last season: 111-51, NL West Champion, Lost 1-3 to the San Diego Padres in the NLDS

Odds to win NL West: +100

The Sun rises in the east. The tide comes in at night. Grass is green and the Los Angeles Dodgers win the National League West. As it is, so shall it be. The Dodgers have claimed every division title since 2013 except one, the 2021 race won by the San Francisco Giants by all of one game. LA made up for it by knocking the Giants out of the postseason in the NLDS. Last year, it was the Dodgers who saw their season end at the bats of the NL West Wild Card, their new rivals, the San Diego Padres.

Los Angeles sat on its hands and roster for the most part this season and let some big names walk, including Trea Turner, Cody Bellinger, Tyler Anderson, Justin Truner and Andrew Heaney. It’s a good thing the team remains loaded with Freddie Freeman, Will Smith and Trayce Thompson. Miguel Vargas will get every chance to prove his mettle as one of the top prospects in the league. Gavin Lux will likely not make a plate appearance this season.

At pitcher, Walker Buehler probably won’t take the hill until August at the earlier after his offseason Tommy John surgery. That means the five man rotation is in the capable hands of future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw, Julio Urias, Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May and Noah Syndergaard. While it might be a tougher road for LA this season, even with the Padres ascending, a Dodgers NL West title might just be the best bet in the sport.

Projected 2023 record: 109-53

2. SAN DIEGO PADRES

Last season: 89-73

Odds to win the NL West: +100

While the San Diego Padres came into the 2022 postseason as a Wild Card, they upset the apple cart all the way to the NLCS. On the way, they knocked off not one, but two 100-plus win teams including the perennial NL West Champion Los Angeles Dodgers. San Diego has not won the NL West since 2006 and hasn’t put together back-to-back winning records since 2004-2007, so there’s some history to overcome, but this is the roster to do it. As much money as the Padres spent to keep their own players, they managed to nab one of the game’s best, Xander Bogaerts, off the free agent market. Nelson Cruz isn’t the worst acquisition either. They join a heavy hitting line up with Manny Machado, Ha-Seong Kim, Austin Nola, Juan Soto and eventually Fernando Tatis, Jr. once he returns from his PED suspension.

The five-man rotation is steady, but probably keeps the Padres from claiming the West. It starts with Yu Darvish, then Joe Musgrove, Blake Snell, Michael Wacha and Nick Martinez. San Diego will be right in it the whole way and could very well make another late run, but I don’t expect we’ll get another all Wild Card NLCS again in 2023.

Projected 2023 record: 93-69

3. SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS

Last season: 81-81

Odds to win the NL West: +800

San Francisco has been the only team to claim the NL West other than the Los Angeles Dodgers in the last decade, but they couldn’t put it together for two seasons in a row and missed the postseason entirely in 2022. They added some talent, but neither of the guys they seriously targeted (Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa). Instead, they settled for Mitch Haniger and Michael Conforto. Quality pieces, but not exactly the superstar world beaters they wanted. They’ll join Thairo Estrada, Joc Pederson, Austin Slater and Wilmer Flores for a solid offensive line up.

With Carlos Rodon gone, Logan Webb has to carry the load in San Fran’s five-man rotation. He’ll be joined by Alex Cobb, Sean Manaea, Ross Stripling and Alex Wood, though somebody’s probably losing their job to top prospect Kyle Harrison before the season wraps. The Giants might be better on paper than their .500 season a year ago, but the math says they’ll be lucky to post the same record in 2023. And a playoff berth is probably out of the question.

Projected 2023 record: 79-83

4. ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

Last season: 74-88

Odds to win the NL West: +3300

Here’s a little fun fact for you. The only team to win the NL West since 2006 other than the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants is the Arizona Diamondbacks, who claimed the West in 2007 and 2011. They have managed all of two winning records since. This year doesn’t look like it’ll be the third. Still, there’s reason for optimism at what’s getting built out in the desert. The team locked in Corbin Carroll with an eight year extension, traded for top catching prospect Gabriel Moreno and brought in some serious star power with the acquisition of Evan Longoria and the trade for Lourdes Gurriel, Jr. . The Diamondbacks could be building up for a San Diego Padres style run in two seasons. They have to get there, keep adding the pieces and find a way to get last year’s top batter, Josh Rojas, onto the field since Longoria and Gurriell are in his line up spots.

Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly are solid atop the rotation. They’re joined by Madison Bumgarner, Zach Davies and Ryne Nelson in the five. Arizona, as long as they don’t get cheap, is crafting something solid for the future. But that won’t help them get over the hump this season.

Projected 2023 record: 75-87

5. COLORADO ROCKIES

Last season: 68-94

Odds to win the NL West: +6600

Here’s a not so fun fact and one that Colorado Rockies fans are all too familiar with. Colorado has been in the NL West since they first joined the MLB in 1993. In that 30 year span they have won the West exactly zero times. In a league where teams can all but buy a title at least once a decade, the Rockies haven’t managed to do it at all and finished second in the division just three times. I do not feel as if they’ll buck the trend this season.

But, as I wrote in my other previews, there’s peace in knowing your team will not contend. Tickets are cheap and fans can enjoy watching Colorado’s young talent cycle through before they join other teams and the star-studded rosters of their fellow NL West clubs when they come to Coors Field. And, hey, as long Kris Bryant is healthy, he’ll always be a superstar worth watching.

The pitching leaves plenty to be desired. German Marquez and Kyle Freeland are fine, and Jose Urena might surprise, but the floor drops out considerably with Antonio Senzalela and Ryan Feltner as the rest of the five. The Rockies appear to be simming through the season once again and my final win prediction might be high.

Projected 2023 record: 63-99

Follow Adam Greene on Twitter @TheFirstMan.

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