Phillies vs Braves Preview & Odds for Tonight’s Game 3

In tonight’s NL East showdown, the Atlanta Braves are hosting the Philadelphia Phillies in the deciding match of their three-game series.

The Phillies, by the skin of their teeth, pulled off a 3-2 win Wednesday night at Truist Park to even up the series against the Braves

With both teams struggling offensively and only nine combined runs scored in the first two games, tonight’s game could be a low-scoring affair. However, the spotlight will be on Braves’ young right-hander Spencer Schwellenbach, who has been impressive in his debut MLB season.

Phillies vs Braves Prediction

Best Bet: Spencer Schwellenbach Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-115)

Analysis

Spencer Schwellenbach has been one of the bright spots for the Braves this season, stepping up in a big way despite Atlanta being hit hard by injuries. Schwellenbach started the season in Class-A Advanced and quickly climbed the ranks to Double-A before making his major league debut. Across his minor league career, he posted a 2.40 ERA with 51 strikeouts over 45 innings, and those numbers have translated well to the majors.

In his MLB outings, Schwellenbach has racked up 85 strikeouts over 75 2/3 innings, consistently hitting the Over on his strikeout prop. He’s surpassed 5.5 strikeouts in nine of his last 10 starts, including a matchup against the Phillies earlier this season. Given that Philadelphia averages 8.32 strikeouts per game, Schwellenbach is well-positioned to eclipse this total once again.

If you’re looking for a bit more value, consider laddering up with Over 6.5 strikeouts (+134) or even Over 7.5 strikeouts (+280), both of which have hit in recent outings. Schwellenbach has also reached double-digit strikeouts twice in his last four starts, making the Over 8.5 strikeouts (+540) worth a small bet for those feeling adventurous.

Phillies vs Braves Opening Odds

• Moneyline: Philadelphia -105 | Atlanta -115
• Run Line: Philadelphia +1.5 (-250) | Atlanta -1.5 (+175)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-105) | Under 8.5 (-115)

Moneyline and Over/Under Analysis

The moneyline odds for this matchup have seen little movement, with the Phillies holding steady around -105 and the Braves slightly favored at -110 to -115. The total opened at 8.5, reflecting the low-scoring nature of the first two games in the series.

Given the recent struggles of both offenses, betting on the Under 8.5 runs could be a wise choice. The Phillies have managed just 16 runs in their last five games, while the Braves have scored 19 runs in their last six games, including an 11-run outburst against the Angels. With the current pitching matchup, another low-scoring game is likely.

Trends to Consider

• Atlanta has hit the game total Under in 74 of its last 126 games, delivering a 16% return on investment for bettors.

Game Info

• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
• Date: Thursday, August 22, 2024
• First Pitch: 7:08 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX

Starting Pitchers

• Philadelphia Phillies: Cristopher Sanchez (9-8, 3.46 ERA)
• Atlanta Braves: Spencer Schwellenbach (4-6, 4.04 ERA)

Latest Injuries

Atlanta Braves

• Travis d’Arnaud (C): Questionable (Wrist)
• Austin Riley (3B): Out indefinitely (Hand)
• A.J. Minter (RP): Out indefinitely (Hip)

Philadelphia Phillies

• Austin Hays (LF): Out indefinitely (Hamstring)
• Ranger Suarez (SP): Out indefinitely (Back)
• Spencer Turnbull (SP): Out indefinitely (Shoulder)