Examining Line Moves For UFC Fight Night: Blaydes Vs. Dos Santos

With the dust still settling from Conor McGregor’s spectacular return at UFC 246, the focus now shifts to the final event of the opening month of 2020 with UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. dos Santos this Saturday. While the coverage of this upcoming card hasn’t been nearly as extensive as what we had with UFC 246, there is still more than enough quality information out there to successfully handicap this card. We’re tracking the line movements for the bouts to see where the money is coming in. Here’s a look at some of the biggest line moves from open up until now:

HEAVYWEIGHT BOUT: CURTIS BLAYDES (12-2) VS. JUNIOR DOS SANTOS (21-6)

OPENING LINE: BLAYDES -235
CURRENT LINE: BLAYDES -255

The main event for UFC 246 features the former UFC Heavyweight Championship contender dos Santos versus a rising star in the division in Blaydes. While dos Santos is the more experienced fighter of the two, Blaydes is the obvious favorite in this matchup based on nearly every other qualification. Coming off back-to-back wins over Justin Willis and Shamil Abdurakhimov, Blaydes has just two losses in his career, and both of them came against the monster Francis Ngannou. Blaydes should have a much easier time against dos Santos, who is coming off a TKO loss to Ngannou in his last bout.

The line for this fight has already shifted from Blaydes -235 to -255, another indicator that a substantial amount of money has been put behind him. All things considered, Blaydes is probably the smart money pick to win this bout.

WELTERWEIGHT BOUT: RAFAEL DOS ANJOS (29-12) VS. MICHAEL CHIESA (16-4)

OPENING LINE: DOS ANJOS -225
CURRENT LINE: DOS ANJOS -260

The former UFC Welterweight championship contender dos Anjos is coming off losses in three of his last four matchups. So why is he the favorite to win this bout? Well, dos Anjos has faced some tough competition of late with losses to Colby Covington, Kamaru Usman and Leon Edwards. Those are three of the best in the division. He had looked dominant for a stretch before that and he did submit Kevin Lee on May 18th of last year, who is among the top fighters at Welterweight. As for Chiesa, he is coming off back-to-back wins over Carlos Condit and Diego Sanchez. Those fighters are a cut below. Also, he lost back-to-back fights to Lee and Anthony Pettis before that, which is a big reason why he is the underdog in this one.

BANTAMWEIGHT BOUT: MONTEL JACKSON (8-1) VS. FELIPE COLARES (9-1)

OPENING LINE: JACKSON -525
CURRENT LINE: JACKSON -725

While this matchup might seem pretty fair at first glance, the reality is that Jackson is expected to absolutely dominate. Jackson is coming off back-to-back wins to improve to 8-1, including a first-round submission victory over Brian Kelleher. Colares actually owns the better record at 9-1, but he has split his first two decisions in the UFC with his only victory coming via split decision over Domingo Pilarte. Jackson has already moved from -575 to -725 as it seems bettors are really confident that he’ll get the job done.

MIDDLEWEIGHT BOUT: BEVON LEWIS (6-2) VS. DEQUAN TOWNSEND (21-9)

OPENING LINE: LEWIS -290
CURRENT LINE: LEWIS -450

The other major line movement for the undercard for the UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. dos Santos card is Lewis over Townsend. Originally listed at -290 odds, Lewis has moved all the way to -450 odds as a massive favorite to win this bout. Despite being a massive favorite, Lewis might will have to deal with a live underdog here who is more experienced fighter of the two, has the same height, owns the same reach and is heavier of the two fighters. Both fighters are looking for their first win in the UFC.

One of the reasons why Townsend is such a big dog is he’s taking this fight on short notice. Lewis was supposed to fight Alen Amedovski.

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