UFC Vegas 59: Santos vs. Hill Parlay

This might be the last time that former UFC Light Heavyweight title challenger Thiago Santos headlines a card. Santos turned 38 in January, and he has lost four of his last five fights. His only win over the last three years was a unanimous decision win over Johnny Walker, so it looks like the veteran might be ready to head off into the sunset. Jamahal Hill knows that this is the biggest fight so far in his career, and the oddsmakers have installed him as a sizeable favorite by the UFC betting odds.

UFC Vegas 59: Santos vs. Hill will be held at the UFC Apex facility in Enterprise, Nevada. The prelims will start at 7 p.m. ET, and the main event will get underway at 10 p.m. ET. The action will be broadcast on both ESPN and ESPN+.

UFC Vegas 59: Santos vs. Hill Picks

Jamahal Hill to Win Inside Distance -175 vs. Thiago Santos

The odds for the main event have already shifted dramatically. Jamahal Hill was a -260 favorite just a few days ago, but now he is up to -330. Hill is 10-1-1 in his career, and his only loss came to Paul Craig last year. He knocked out Johnny Walker and Jimmy Crute in the first round in his last two fights, earning Performance of the Night bonuses for those finishes.

Hill has proven he has the power to finish his opponents, and Santos might not have the stamina to go five rounds anymore. It’s tough to like Santos’ chances considering what we have seen from him over the last few years, so this is the best bet

Geoff Neal +172 vs. Vicente Luque

There has been decent movement in favor of Vicente Luque too. Luque has moved from -170 to -197, resulting in value with the underdog Geoff Neal. The favorite does have impressive wins over fighters like Michael Chiesa and Tyron Woodley, but he lost to Belal Muhammad in his last fight, and he has proven to be vulnerable if you go the distance against him. Luque is just 2-6 in fights decided by the judges.

Geoff Neal hasn’t been knocked out or submitted since joining the UFC. He has been a bit dodgy in his last three fights, but he does have a recent win over Muhammad and knocked out Niko Price and Mike Perry. Neal is worth backing at this price.

Under 2.5 Rounds in Augusto Sakai vs. Sergey Spivak -170

In his career, Augusto Sakai has had 14 of his 20 fights finish inside the distance. That’s typical for heavyweights, as there is so much power that one or two good shots can knock out an opponent. Sergey Spivak proved that with his early knockout of Greg Hardy at UFC 272, and only 3 of his 17 fights have gone the distance.

There is value in Sakai to win this fight, but the better bet is Under 2.5 Rounds considering the power that will be on display.

Parlay Payout: $100 to win $578.86

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