2021 Alamo Bowl Over-Under Preview & Pick

The Alamo Bowl traditionally has one of the best bowl matchups before the New Year’s Six games. That is certainly the case this year as the Oklahoma Sooners will take on the Oregon Ducks in San Antonio. This isn’t the game that either program wanted to be in after being ranked in the top five at different points of the season, but both teams are in oddly similar spots after their head coaches left in early December.

The 2021 Alamo Bowl will pit the Oregon Ducks against the Oklahoma Sooners on Wednesday, December 29, 2021, at 9:15 p.m. ET on ESPN from the Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas.

College Football Betting Odds

Oregon +7

Oklahoma -7

Total 60

Few programs have had as wild of a season as Oregon. The Ducks put themselves on the map by running all over Ohio State in Columbus in Week 2, giving the college football world its first big upset of the season. Oregon was the frontrunner in the Pac 12, but the Ducks proved to be susceptible to power run games in a loss to Stanford. They were throttled twice by Utah, losing by a combined score of 76-17 in three weeks.

Oklahoma was 9-0 in mid-November, but the Sooners did not look like a title contender. They were extremely fortunate to be unbeaten after one score wins in five of their first six games. The Sooners failed to make the Big 12 Championship Game for the first time since 2009 though after losing to Baylor and Oklahoma State down the stretch.

When Oregon Has the Ball

Oregon is going to look very differently next season. Georgia defensive coordinator Dan Lanning was hired to replace Mario Cristobal, and he will put an emphasis on defense. Bo Nix will be the new quarterback and Kenny Dillingham will be the offensive coordinator, as the Ducks bring a lot of the SEC mentality to the Pac 12.

This team runs the ball very well. Travis Dye picked up 1,118 yards and 15 touchdowns this season, and he is averaging 5.8 YPC. Quarterback Anthony Brown is a solid runner too, averaging 4.5 YPC. Brown has not been at his best when he needs to move the chains with his arm though, completing just 63.7% of his passes for 7.7 YPA.

The Sooners have a new coaching staff too, and there will be some major changes on defense. Former Clemson defensive coordinator Brent Venables is taking over in Norman, and that should have a huge effect. Oklahoma did a decent job stopping the run, but this defense had a hard time against good quarterbacks.

When Oklahoma Has the Ball

Freshman Caleb Williams took over for Spencer Sanders in the Red River Rivalry. Williams led the Sooners back to beat Texas, and he has been the go-to guy for Oklahoma since that point. He is completing 62.5% of his passes for 9.1 YPA with 18 touchdowns and four interceptions, and he was the second leading rusher on the team with 408 yards (5.7 YPC) and six touchdowns.

Kennedy Brooks was one of the top running backs in the Big 12 this season. Brooks ran for 1,111 yards (6.0 YPC) and 10 touchdowns. Oklahoma has run the ball a lot more since Williams took over under center, and the Sooners have seen that the way to beat the Ducks is by pounding away at their front seven.

Oregon won’t have star defensive end Kayvon Thibodeaux as he prepares to be a top ten pick in the NFL Draft. The Ducks were pretty good against the pass, but strong ground games have been able to establish the line of scrimmage against this front seven.

Prediction

The over is probably the best bet considering the defenses are going to be more affected by changes in both these programs. Oklahoma should be able to score at least 35 points against this Oregon defense, and the Ducks should do enough on offense to put this game in the 60s.

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