2021 Birmingham Bowl Over-Under Preview & Pick

We might not see a lot of points in the 2021 Birmingham Bowl. At least one team scored 37 points or more in the last four iterations of this bowl game, and three of those four games had at least 70 total points scored. However, both the Houston Cougars and Auburn Tigers have good defenses and offenses that have trouble scoring. That has led to this game having one of the lowest totals of bowl season.

The 2021 Birmingham Bowl will pit the Houston Cougars against the Auburn Tigers on Tuesday, December 28, 2021, at 12 p.m. ET from Protective Stadium in Birmingham, Alabama on ESPN.

College Football Betting Odds

Houston +2

Auburn -2

Total 51

Houston began and ended its season with losses, but the Cougars won 11 straight games in between those defeats. However, the only good team they beat in that stretch was SMU, and they lost to Cincinnati by 15 points in the AAC Championship Game.

It was a very tough year for Auburn. The Tigers were 6-2 in late October, but they ended their season with four straight losses. Starting quarterback Bo Nix suffered a season-ending injury, and he made the decision to transfer to Oregon earlier this month.

When Houston Has the Ball

Clayton Tune ended up having a fine season for the Cougars. He completed 68.5% of his passes for 8.6 YPA with 28 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Tune isn’t much of a mobile threat and was sacked 35 times, but he can make some things happen with his legs. His favorite target was sophomore Nathaniel Dell, who was a First Team All-AAC selection after recording 80 receptions for 1,179 yards and 12 touchdowns.

Running back Alton McCaskill was named AAC Rookie of the Year after running for 883 yards (5.0 YPC) and 16 touchdowns as a freshman. McCaskill is a bull at 6’1 and 210 pounds, and he makes a nice thunder and lightning dynamic with the 5’7 and 170-pound Ta’Zhawn Henry.

Auburn is one of the most difficult teams to run the ball against in the country. The Tigers are allowing 3.7 YPC, and they shut down Alabama’s ground game in the Iron Bowl. They ranked 21^st in Defensive SP+, and cornerback Roger McCreary is a First Team All-SEC selection that led the conference with 16 passes defensed. That will make it hard for Houston to score points in this game.

When Auburn Has the Ball

It won’t be easy for the Tigers to get on the scoreboard either. T.J. Finley has not been too effective since replacing Bo Nix, and he wasn’t great during his time at LSU. Finley has averaged under 6.0 YPA in his two starts, and he threw for a total of 325 yards in losses to South Carolina and Alabama. Auburn scored just 27 points in regulation in those two games.

Tank Bigsby had some success running the ball for Auburn this season. Bigsby surpassed 1,000 yards and totaled 10 touchdowns while averaging 4.8 YPC for the Tigers. He ran for over 100 yards in each of Auburn’s first three games, but he had just two games with over 70 yards in the Tigers’ final nine tilts.

Houston ranks 22^nd in Defensive SP+. Defensive linemen David Anenih and Logan Hall were First Team All-AAC choices, and that allowed the Cougars to rank ninth in total defense. They also ranked third nationally in third down defense.

Prediction

The under is the best bet in this game. Neither offense will have much success moving the ball, as neither team will be able to establish the run.

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