2021 Cotton Bowl Over-Under Preview & Pick

The first College Football Playoff semifinal is expected to be a blowout. The Cincinnati Bearcats became the first Group of Five team to make the CFP, but they are heavy underdogs against the Alabama Crimson Tide in the 2021 Cotton Bowl. A win for Cincinnati would be huge for every Group of Five team that has been on the precipice over the last two decades, but Alabama is the defending national champion and has Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young under center.

The 2021 Cotton Bowl will see the No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide take on the No. 4 Cincinnati Bearcats on Friday, December 31, 2021, at 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

College Football Betting Odds

Cincinnati +13.5

Alabama -13.5

Total 57.5

Cincinnati did everything it needed to do in order to make the CFP. The Bearcats are the only unbeaten team in the country this season at 13-0, and they went on the road and beat 11-1 Notre Dame. They had some hiccups in the middle of the season, but they went on to win each of their final four games by at least 15 points.

Alabama was not impressive for much of the season. The Crimson Tide really struggled against marginal teams like Florida, LSU, and Auburn, and they nearly lost at home to Arkansas. They fell to Texas A&M and their backup quarterback in College Station, but they became the No. 1 seed after smashing previously No. 1 Georgia in the SEC Championship Game.

When Cincinnati Has the Ball

Desmond Ridder has been superb for Cincinnati this season. The four-year starter saved his best for last, completing 65.9% of his passes for 3,190 yards with 30 touchdowns and eight interceptions for the Bearcats this year. Ridder was the second-leading rusher on Cincy during the regular season too, running for 371 yards (3.7 YPC) and six TDs.

The Bearcats are averaging 5.3 YPC as a team. Jerome Ford was a First Team All-AAC selection after running for 1,242 yards (6.2 YPC) and 19 touchdowns this season, and Ryan Montgomery was explosive with a 6.9 YPC average.

Alabama isn’t as strong on defense as the Crimson Tide usually are under Nick Saban. The front seven is allowing 2.6 YPC and 84.2 YPG, ranking in the top three nationally in run defense, but the defensive backs haven’t been great. Will Anderson Jr. was a force to be reckoned with though, posting 15.5 sacks to be one of the best defensive players in the nation.

When Alabama Has the Ball

Bryce Young locked up the Heisman Trophy after torching Georgia’s defense in the SEC Championship Game. In a year where young, inexperienced quarterbacks largely stumbled, Young was outstanding by completing 68% of his passes for 4,322 yards with 43 touchdowns and four interceptions.

Brian Robinson Jr. ran for over 1,000 yards with 14 touchdowns. Jameson Williams was the most explosive receiver in the country with 68 catches for 1,445 yards and 15 touchdowns, while John Metchie III had 96 receptions for 1,142 yards and eight touchdowns. Metchie is out for the rest of the season though, so Slade Bolden will have to step up.

Cincinnati has an elite defense. The Bearcats rank ninth in Defensive SP+, and they had seven defenders that were First Team All-AAC. This secondary is elite as Ahmad Gardner was a unanimous pick to be the AAC Defensive Player of the Year, and Coby Bryant is a future Sunday player too.

Prediction

This will be a tight, low-scoring game. Both of these defenses are exceptional, and neither offense will be able to have much success.

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