2021 Gasparilla Bowl Over-Under Preview & Pick

For the first time in 15 years, the Florida Gators will take on the UCF Knights. Florida has tried to avoid playing in-state rivals besides Florida State for the last few decades, but these two programs will meet in the Gasparilla Bowl. This game is already sold out and should be one of the biggest games of bowl season prior to New Year’s Eve.

The 2021 Gasparilla Bowl will pit the Florida Gators against the UCF Knights. These teams will meet on Thursday, December 23, 2021, at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida.

College Football Betting Odds

Florida -6.5

UCF +6.5

Total 55.5

Florida looked like a real contender early on this season. The Gators easily handled their first two opponents and only lost to Alabama by two points. However, they failed to beat an FBS opponent between their October 9 win over Vanderbilt and their victory over Florida State in the regular season finale.

Gus Malzahn’s first year at UCF was full of ups and downs. Starting quarterback Dillon Gabriel suffered a season-ending injury in the third game and then entered the transfer portal, forcing freshman Mikey Keene into the starting job. That limited this offense, but the defense rose to the occasion to lead the Knights to an 8-4 record.

When Florida Has the Ball

It will be interesting to see who Florida starts at quarterback in this game. Emory Jones was the starter all year, but he announced that he would enter the transfer portal last week. Jones did a decent job running this offense and is the team’s leading rusher, but he also threw 13 interceptions. That has many fans ready to see Anthony Richardson take on a bigger role, although he is not yet polished as a passer.

The Gators do a good job running the ball. Florida is averaging 5.4 YPC with 24 touchdowns. Dameon Pierce averaged 5.9 YPC with 12 touchdowns for the Gators this season, and Richardson is very explosive as a runner.

UCF has a pretty good secondary, allowing 6.1 YPA this season. The front seven has left something to be desired though, so the Gators might be able to just run the ball against this defense throughout the night.

When UCF Has the Ball

Mikey Keene has yet to throw for more than 230 yards in a game this season. Keene is completing 63.6% of his passes for 6.3 YPA with 16 touchdowns and six interceptions, but he has missed some throws and has only put up decent numbers because of how much Malzahn emphasizes the short passing game.

The Knights have been one of the best teams at moving the chains on the ground though. UCF is averaging 5.3 YPC and has run for 25 touchdowns as a team. Johnny Richardson and Mark-Antony Richards are both averaging over 6.0 YPC, and Northwestern transfer Isaiah Bowser is the team’s back that can get the tough yards.

Florida won’t have standout defensive end Zachary Carter for this game, as he has declared for the NFL Draft. Carter was Florida’s best pass rusher this season, so that will hurt the Gators in this game. The only defender with more than three sacks is now linebacker Brenton Cox Jr., and this defense can be run on.

Prediction

This won’t be easy for Florida. The Gators might not be fully focused on this game, and there are real questions at quarterback. UCF isn’t as talented, but the Knights will be fired up and should be able to cover the spread.

It’s tough to make a call for the total. However, the under is probably the better play as Keene hasn’t been that great under center, and the UCF defense has done a good job standing tall with a struggling offense and a freshman quarterback.

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