2021 Las Vegas Bowl Over-Under Preview & Pick

The game with the lowest total of bowl season is the Las Vegas Bowl. Both the Wisconsin Badgers and Arizona State Sun Devils are known for their run game and their defense. These teams want to run the ball and grind clock, so points won’t be hard to come by in Sin City on Thursday night.

The 2021 Las Vegas Bowl will pit the Wisconsin Badgers against the Arizona State Sun Devils on Thursday, December 30, 2021, at 10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN from Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada.

College Football Betting Odds

Arizona State +6

Wisconsin -6

Total 41.5

It looked like the Wisconsin Badgers would play in the Big Ten Championship Game despite a 1-3 start. Wisconsin won seven straight games going into the season finale with Minnesota, but the Badgers were unable to beat the Golden Gophers. That led to Iowa winning the Big Ten West, putting Wisconsin in the Las Vegas Bowl.

Arizona State was the favorite to win the Pac 12 South at the halfway point of the season. The Sun Devils went on the road and hammered UCLA, and they were 5-1 after crushing Stanford. They took a 21-7 lead into halftime against Utah in mid-October, but they ended up surrendering 28 unanswered points to lose to the Utes. They proceeded to lose to Washington State and Oregon State to finish the year at 8-4.

When Arizona State Has the Ball

Jayden Daniels has seemingly regressed in each of the last two seasons after a very strong freshman campaign in 2019. Daniels completed just over 66% of his passes this year for 7.9 YPA with 10 touchdowns and nine interceptions. He threw four touchdown passes and six picks in his final six games, and he didn’t throw for over 300 yards in any game this season.

At least Daniels is one of the best running quarterbacks in the country. He has run for 670 yards (5.6 YPC) and six touchdowns this season, complementing leading rusher Rachaad White pretty well. White ran for 1,006 yards and 15 touchdowns on the season, but he won’t add to that total after opting out of the Las Vegas Bowl.

Wisconsin has the second-ranked defense in the country per SP+. They won’t have safety Collin Wilder available for this game, but they do rank No. 1 in total defense, yards per play, and run defense in the nation. It’s hard to imagine Arizona State finding the end zone more than twice against this unit.

When Wisconsin Has the Ball

An uninspired Wisconsin offense ranked 58^th in SP+. Graham Mertz was supposed to fix the problems the Badgers have had at quarterback, but he posted dreadful numbers under center this season despite a great offensive line and ground game. Mertz completed 58.7% of his passes for 1,821 yards with nine touchdowns and 10 interceptions.

The Badgers do run the ball very well with Braelon Allen leading the way. Allen has run for 1,109 yards (7.1 YPC) and 12 touchdowns on the year. Josh Seltzner, Logan Bruss, and Tyler Beach were all-conference offensive linemen, and Jake Ferguson was a First Team All-Big Ten tight end.

Arizona State ranks 24^th in scoring defense and 19^th in total defense. Tyler Johnson was a First Team All-Pac 12 selection along the defensive line, and D.J. Davidson and Darien Butler were Second Team All-Pac 12 picks. However, Butler and cornerbacks Jack Jones and Chase Lucas have opted out of this game to prepare for the NFL Draft.

Prediction

This should be a low scoring game, and that is likely to lead to the under cashing even though the total is very low.

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