2021 Liberty Bowl Over-Under Preview & Pick

Mike Leach will be the center of attention for this year’s Liberty Bowl. Leach and his Mississippi State Bulldogs will take on the program that put him on the map in the Texas Tech Red Raiders. Texas Tech and Leach did not part amicably after a decade of success, and Leach is ready to take it to his former team. That should lead to a lot of points in this year’s game.

The 2021 Liberty Bowl will feature the Texas Tech Red Raiders facing the Mississippi State Bulldogs on Tuesday, December 28, 2021, at 6:45 p.m. ET on ESPN from Memphis, Tennessee.

College Football Betting Odds

Texas Tech +9.5

Mississippi State -9.5

Total 58

Texas Tech has two nice wins to its credit. The Red Raiders used a lot of turnovers to beat Houston in their season opener, and they beat Iowa State in a shootout in mid-November. However, they were blasted by four of their Big 12 rivals and finished with a 3-6 record in conference play.

The Bulldogs were a few scores away from a 10-win season. Alabama was the only team that beat Mississippi State convincingly, as three of this team’s five losses were by a field goal or less. They went on the road to beat Texas A&M and Auburn, and the Bulldogs have impressive home wins over Kentucky and North Carolina State too.

When Texas Tech Has the Ball

Donovan Smith is expected to start under center for the Red Raiders in this game. Smith was the third-string quarterback for Texas Tech at the start of the season, but Tyler Shough broke his collarbone in September and Henry Colombi wasn’t very effective as the second option. Smith played well as a freshman, completing 63.1% of his passes for 8.4 YPA with six touchdowns and two interceptions.

Three of Texas Tech’s top receivers might miss this game though. Leading receiver Erik Ezukanma has declared for the NFL Draft, and both Myles Price and Travis Koontz dealt with injuries at the end of the season. The Red Raiders haven’t been too effective running the ball in conference play, so Smith will need to create if they are to pull off the upset.

Mississippi State has one of the better defenses in the nation. The Bulldogs rank 21^st in total defense, and they are allowing 3.6 YPC. However, they won’t have either linebacker Aaron Brule or cornerback Martin Emerson on Tuesday.

When Mississippi State Has the Ball

Will Rogers was one of the top quarterbacks in the country this season. Rogers put up the numbers we usually see from Mike Leach quarterbacks, completing 75.1% of his passes for over 4,000 yards with 35 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Unfortunately, he won’t have All-American left tackle Charles Cross protecting his blind side though as Cross is skipping the game to enter the NFL Draft.

Makai Polk leads the Bulldogs with 98 receptions for 989 yards and nine touchdowns. There are five players with at least 45 receptions though, as this is one of the most pass-happy offenses in the country. They thrive on underneath routes and methodically move the ball down the field.

The Red Raiders have one of the worst defenses in the country. Texas Tech ranks 105^th in scoring defense and 84^th in total defense. This secondary ranks outside the top 100 in pass defense too.

Prediction

Mississippi State will go a long way to putting this game over the total itself, and the Bulldogs will go on to beat Texas Tech handily in the 2021 Liberty Bowl.

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