2022 CFP National Championship Over-Under Preview & Pick

For the second time in four years, the Alabama Crimson Tide will take on the Georgia Bulldogs for the national championship. Alabama ripped out Georgia’s heart when these teams met in Atlanta at the conclusion of the 2017 season, as the Crimson Tide overcame a 13-0 halftime deficit to beat the Bulldogs in overtime. Nick Saban has seven straight wins over Georgia, but Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs are a short favorite in Indianapolis.

The College Football Playoff National Championship Game between the Alabama Crimson Tide and Georgia Bulldogs will take place on Monday, January 10, 2022, at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN from Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana.

College Football Betting Odds

Georgia -2.5

Alabama +2.5

Total 52.5

The Georgia Bulldogs were having a dream season before the SEC Championship Game. Georgia was 12-0 coming into Atlanta, and the Bulldogs had not given up more than 17 points all season. However, Alabama dismantled them 41-24 as Bryce Young had a performance for the ages. Still, Georgia made the CFP and hammered Michigan in the Orange Bowl to get a second shot at the Crimson Tide.

This hasn’t been Nick Saban’s best team, but Alabama is back in the national title game. The Crimson Tide lost on the road to Texas A&M in the regular season, and they only beat Florida, LSU, and Arkansas by a single score. Alabama needed four overtimes to even get past Auburn and Make the SEC Championship Game. They did beat Cincinnati 27-6 in the Cotton Bowl to easily cover the number and make their sixth title game appearance in the CFP era.

When Georgia Has the Ball

Stetson Bennett has had a nice season for Georgia. The Bulldogs’ primary quarterback is completing 64.4% of his passes for 2,638 yards (10.1 YPA) with 27 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Tight end Brock Bowers is his favorite target with 52 receptions for 846 yards and 12 touchdowns, and we will see George Pickens play more of a factor now that he is healthy.

The Bulldogs run the ball better than almost any other team in the nation. Zamir White has run for 772 yards (5.3 YPC) and 10 touchdowns, and James Cook has run for 651 yards (6.1 YPC) and seven scores. Georgia only averaged 3.6 YPC against Alabama the first time around though.

This Alabama defense isn’t as strong as it has been in the past. The front seven has two stars in Will Anderson Jr. and Henry To’o To’o, but the rest of the unit is nothing special in Alabama terms. The secondary has some issues too.

When Alabama Has the Ball

The Crimson Tide finally have a Heisman Trophy winning quarterback. Bryce Young did what Tua Tagovailoa, Jalen Hurts, Joe Namath, and Bart Starr couldn’t by claiming college football’s top individual honor. He threw for 4,503 yards with 46 touchdowns and five interceptions this season, and he lit up Georgia in the SEC title game. However, he was sacked 35 times on the year, and what he did against the Bulldogs the first time probably isn’t repeatable.

Brian Robinson Jr. was Alabama’s leading rusher with 1,275 yards (5.1 YPC) and 14 touchdowns this year. Jameson Williams is the top wideout with 75 catches for 1,507 yards and 15 TDs, but the loss of John Metchie III is huge. There isn’t another quality option for Young to target in the passing game, as Slade Bolden doesn’t exactly strike fear into opposing defenses.

Georgia had the best defense in the country this season. The Bulldogs were first in SP+, first in scoring defense (9.6 PPG), and second in total defense (253.1 YPG). Jordan Davis and Nakobe Dean are both potential top ten picks in the NFL Draft, and this side of the ball has nine players that could end up suiting up on Sunday.

Prediction

The under is the best bet in this game. Although these times have combined for at least 48 points in each of their last 10 meetings, Alabama’s offense won’t have the same success this time and Georgia will want to keep the ball on the ground.

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