Auburn Tigers at Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Preview

The Alabama Crimson Tide are the clear No. 1 team in the nation. They received every first-place vote in the most recent AP Poll, and they were the top team in the first College Football Playoff rankings. Alabama is a heavy favorite against Auburn in this year’s Iron Bowl, but Gus Malzahn has had more success against the Crimson Tide than any other coach in the conference. Malzahn has won three of seven games against Alabama since taking over in Auburn, yet all three of those wins have come at Jordan-Hare Stadium. This year’s game will be in Tuscaloosa, so the Tigers are prohibitive underdogs.

The 2020 Iron Bowl will take place on Saturday, November 28, at 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS.

College Football Betting Odds

Auburn +24.5

Alabama -24.5

Total 62

We haven’t seen too much in line movement in this year’s Iron Bowl. Alabama opened as a 24-point favorite, and it moved up somewhat before falling due to Nick Saban’s COVID diagnosis. Saban is showing symptoms, so he won’t be on the sidelines in Tuscaloosa, leaving most of the head coaching duties to former Washington and USC head coach Steve Sarkisian.

Alabama Offense vs. Auburn Defense

Four Alabama offensive players were selected in the first 15 picks of the 2020 NFL Draft, but the Crimson Tide still have one of the five best offenses in the country by any metric. They are third in the nation in scoring (49.4 PPG), fifth in the nation in total offense (548.6 YPG), and the No. 1 offense nationally per SP+.

Mac Jones is considered one of the Heisman Trophy contenders, completing 77.1 percent of his passes for 12.1 YPA with 18 touchdowns and three interceptions through seven games. He has one of the most talented receivers in the country in Devonta Smith (65 receptions for 903 yards and 10 TDs), while Jaylen Waddle (22.3 YPR) and John Metchie III (21.4 YPG) are both big play threats.

The ground game is as potent as ever with Najee Harris toting the rock. Harris has run for 797 yards and 16 touchdowns, and Alabama has a competent kicker too, a rarity in the Saban era.

Auburn’s defense had three players selected in the first 50 picks of last year’s draft, but the Tigers aren’t able to reload like their in-state rivals. They rank 25^th in defensive SP+, and they are allowing over 400 YPG. This defense has looked much better over the last month, but Alabama is much better on offense than any other team in the SEC outside of Florida.

Auburn Offense vs. Alabama Defense

Six of Auburn’s seven games have gone under the total, as this offense has underwhelmed. Bo Nix has been sharper over his last three starts though, leading the Tigers to three straight wins and covers per the college football betting odds.

Nix isn’t Malzahn’s most accurate quarterback, but he is a solid dual-threat option in this system. He is completing 61.3 percent of his passes for 7.3 YPA, yet he is mistake prone with an interception on 2.2 percent of his dropbacks. Nix is averaging 6.2 YPC when he runs the ball.

Freshman Tank Bigsby is moving the ball well on the ground. Bigsby is averaging 5.7 YPC, taking over as Auburn’s primary running back. Seth Williams and Anthony Schwartz each have over 500 receiving yards and three touchdowns, and they will need to have big games if Auburn is going to pull off the upset.

This Alabama defense isn’t as dominant as we have seen in the past, but it’s still a top unit. Malzahn has called some great games against the Crimson Tide though. Auburn had 48 points in last year’s Iron Bowl as the Tigers ran for 181 yards and two touchdowns.

Prediction

Malzahn has only lost to Alabama by 20 points or more once in the last seven years, so take the points with the Tigers. Follow our Twitter account for the latest sports news and wagering odds, and come to our Instagram for more useful betting info too.