Cheez-It Bowl Matches California Against TCU

The early college football bowl schedule continues on ‘Boxing Day’ as Pac-12 entrant California takes on Texas Christian University (TCU) out of the Big 12. This is the late start game on December 26 and will go at 9:00 PM Eastern from Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona. The name may have changed but the bowl remains the same. This is the first ‘Cheez-It Bowl’ but this game has a long history dating back to 1989. This game has been known as the Insight Bowl, the Copper Bowl, the Cactus Bowl and the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl. If you want to count naming sponsors there’s Domino’s Pizza (1990-1991), Weiser Lock (1992-1995), Insight Enterprises (1997-2011), the aforementioned Buffalo Wild Wings (2012-2013), TicketCity (2015), Motel-6 (two games, both in 2016) and now Kellogg’s, makers of the iconic cheese cracker.

TCU has been consistently solid under head coach Gary Patterson. The Horned Frogs are looking to finish above .500 for the 14th time in Patterson’s 18 years at the helm. He’s one of the most respected college coaches in the country and while this might not be anywhere near his best team this would be among his most impressive performances should TCU win and finish 7-6. Nothing went right for TCU this year with countless injuries at key positions. Starting quarterback Shawn Robinson suffered a season ending shoulder injury earlier in the year and has since announced his intention to transfer. He was replaced by Mike Collins, himself a transfer coming from a school that won’t be on Robinson’s list (Ivy League entrant Penn). Collins played well until he was injured and he’s likely to miss this game. Right now, the starter will be fifth year senior Grayson Muehlstein who is more of a ‘game manager’ than anything else. To his credit, he ‘managed’ well enough to get this team to a bowl game.

Patterson did his best to put a positive spin on a difficult year:

“It’s been one of the more interesting years we’ve ever had in my 21 years here at TCU. At 4-6, a lot of people would’ve quit but we found a way to win two ballgames and hopefully another one. We have a chance to win four of the last five.”

In the longterm, TCU will be fine at quarterback. Collins is expected back and he’ll battle for the starting job with a couple of highly touted youngsters, freshman Justin Rogers and incoming recruit Max Duggan. For now, however, it’s Muehlstein’s show.

The reality of TCU is that they’re essentially a mirror image of California though due more to necessity than design. Bears’ head coach Justin Wilcox is already a hot property in his second year—so much so that he got a new five year deal at the end of the regular season. Not sure how this might impact this game but it sure isn’t a positive. History has demonstrated what happens to players right after the sign new deals. Hard to bring the same level of intensity when you know that you’re set for the next few seasons.

This matchup is a good lesson in hype versus reality. Everyone loves California’s defense and for good reason. They’re ranked #16 in the NCAA in total defense which is a good thing since their offense has been pitiful this year weighing in at #113 in FBS total offense. The Bears have a good defense but we’re not buying the sports media zeitgeist that suggests they’re far superior to TCU. TCU’s defense isn’t as highly ranked as California’s but they are #26 in FBS total defense and the Horned Frogs have a marginally better offense despite the revolving door at quarterback (#93 in FBS total offense).

Some concern about the slew of TCU skill position injuries but it’s not like they’re going to be in a high scoring shootout. Statistically, these are two good defenses and two sputtering offenses. Edge to TCU’s coaching and bowl game experience. California hasn’t won a bowl game since 2015 and despite the gushing from the sports media they won’t break that streak here as the Horned Frogs win outright. At this price its all we need them to do.

BET TCU +1 OVER CALIFORNIA