Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Alabama Crimson Tide: Betting Guide

It is the first of the two College Football Playoff semifinal games, this one being at the Cotton Bowl. The fourth-seeded Cincinnati Bearcats are the first Group of Five conference team to make the playoff in its eight-year existence. The top-seeded Alabama Crimson Tide are gunning for a repeat national championship, their third in five years, their fourth in seven years, their sixth in 11 years, and their seventh under head coach Nick Saban. This game might seem like David vs. Goliath, but that’s too simplistic a framing, as you will soon see.

• Game: Cincinnati (13-0) vs. Alabama (12-1)
• Location: AT&T Stadium (Arlington)
• Day/Time: Friday, December 31 – 3:30 p.m. ET
• Television: ESPN

Head-to-Head

These teams met four times in nine seasons, but over 30 years ago. Their last meeting was in 1990, with Alabama winning 45-7. The first meeting between the two schools came in 1982, the last season in which iconic Alabama coach Bear Bryant led the Crimson Tide. Alabama has won by at least 18 points in all four meetings, but this is a different year and a new day.

Cincinnati Bearcats

The Bearcats played a game which was relatively typical for them in 2021. They started slowly and played a very close first half before busting the game open in the second half to beat the Houston Cougars, 35-20, in the AAC Championship Game at home at Nippert Stadium in Cincinnati. The Bearcats have played a lot of games this year in which they come out of the gate slowly but then make great adjustments at halftime and smother opponents with their defense in the third and fourth quarters. It has been a recurring theme.

This game against Alabama obviously presents a situation in which Cincinnati cannot realistically afford to start slowly. This does not mean Cincinnati needs to grab a big early lead, but the Bearcats can’t fall behind by 14 points. If they are close at halftime, it will likely mean they have played well. Cincinnati leading Tulane 14-12 at halftime was indicative of a poor performance. If Cincinnati leads Alabama 14-12 at halftime, it will probably reflect a strong performance.

Injury Report

The Bearcats have a clean injury report relative to their AAC Championship Game. They, like most bowl teams, have used the past few weeks in December to get healthy.

Alabama Crimson Tide

Alabama beat Georgia, 41-24, one year after beating the Bulldogs by the very same score. Alabama has Georgia’s number, something to note if the two teams have a rematch in the national championship game on Jan. 10 in Indianapolis. In this recent win over Georgia in the 2021 SEC Championship Game, Bryce Young played a great game against a Georgia defense which had previously not allowed more than 17 points in any game from the 2021 season. Alabama had speed and playmakers Georgia could not keep up with. It’s a great sign for the Tide, who will be expected to play for the national title yet again.

Injury Report

The Tide have receiver John Metchie hurt. He was injured in the SEC title game against Georgia, easily the most significant injury for any of the four College Football Playoff teams.

Betting on the Game

With Metchie out, Alabama doesn’t have the full arsenal of weapons it would like against an excellent Cincinnati defense. The Bearcats should be able to keep this close and cover the spread, but winning outright will require a level of perfection Cincinnati has generally not displayed this season. Moreover, Nick Saban with a month to prepare for an opponent is incredibly hard to bet against. Saban has not lost a playoff semifinal game since 2014, which was the first year of the playoff system. Alabama will win by a touchdown in a game played in the low 20s.