College Football: Arkansas Razorbacks at Alabama Crimson Tide

The best player in the country will be on the sidelines for this game as Tua Tagovailoa will miss at least this week for the Alabama Crimson Tide after sustaining a high-ankle sprain against Tennessee over the weekend. Tagovailoa is hoping to be healthy for Alabama’s showdown against LSU in Tuscaloosa in two weeks’ time, so Mac Jones will get the start against the Arkansas Razorbacks this week. Arkansas is the worst team in the SEC West, so this team isn’t supposed to give Alabama a real challenge, but we’ll see how Jones performs with the spotlight on him.

ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS AT ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE
CFB LINE: ALABAMA -31.5
CFB TOTAL: 55.5

Although Tagovailoa will miss this game, oddsmakers believe that Alabama will crush Arkansas all the same. The Crimson Tide are the second-largest favorite per the college football betting odds in Week 9, with only Clemson favored by more points. Nick Saban has never lost to Arkansas since taking over as Alabama’s head coach, and the Crimson Tide have won four of the last seven meetings between these teams by 30 points or more.

RECENT HISTORY

Arkansas has not defeated Alabama since a narrow 24-23 win in Fayetteville back in 2006, and the Razorbacks have only come close to beating the Crimson Tide twice in the last dozen years. They lost 14-13 in 2014, and they fell 24-20 in 2010. However, their closest loss in Tuscaloosa this decade was by 13 points.

WHEN ARKANSAS HAS THE BALL

Chad Morris has been playing quarterback roulette this season. Morris has started Texas A&M transfer Nick Starkel and SMU transfer Ben Hicks, but neither quarterback has played well. Starkel has been the bigger threat to make a play, yet he has also thrown six more interceptions than Hicks this campaign.

Hicks started against Auburn last week, but he injured his shoulder in the game, and he is questionable to play for Arkansas on Saturday. If Hicks plays, expect a more conservative game plan from Morris and the Hogs, but if Starkel plays, the Razorbacks are more likely to take some chances and perhaps make some mistakes.

This offense is ranked 96th in the country per SP+. And one of the few bright spots has been the play of running back Rakeem Boyd. Boyd is averaging 5.5 YPC, but he had his worst outing of the season against Auburn last week. He could have more luck against an Alabama front seven that isn’t as stout up front as we have seen in the past due to injuries and inexperience though. Keep that in mind when it comes to betting player props in this game.

Alabama’s secondary might be the best in college football. Saban’s specialty is defensive backs, and he develops recruits better than anyone we’ve ever seen in the spot. No matter whether Starkel or Hicks plays, it’s very unlikely that the Crimson Tide concede much through the air.

WHEN ALABAMA HAS THE BALL

Without Tagovailoa available, it will be interesting to see whether the Crimson Tide revert to the bully-ball tactics that were so prevalent early in Saban’s tenure. Mac Jones is a competent quarterback, but he is no Tua, and Alabama should be able to run all over Arkansas’ front seven.

In limited action, Jones has completed 62.5 percent of his passes for 237 yards with a touchdown and an interception. He hasn’t been asked to stretch the field, and he will likely only test the defensive backs a few times despite having the best trio of receivers in the country. Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs III are already likely first-round picks, and Devonta Smith could be a first rounder as well given his recent performances.

Najee Harris could be in line for a hefty workload with Alabama on a bye next week. Harris is averaging 5.9 YPC this season, and he is the No. 1 back for the Crimson Tide. Arkansas is allowing 5.1 YPC on the year, so don’t be surprised if Harris posts his best numbers this season. If his over/under for yards is anything less than 110 rushing yards, bet the over.

PREDICTION

At this point, Alabama just want to win by a comfortable margin. The Crimson Tide have no need to make a statement, and they simply want to beat the Razorbacks by double digits and start preparing for LSU. Morris may look to shorten the game and move away from the hurry-up, so I like Arkansas’ chances to cover.

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