College Football: Auburn at LSU

The Tiger Bowl has had huge stakes for most of the last two decades, and this year is no different. LSU and Auburn are the two teams with the best chance to beat out Alabama for the SEC West title, and those rivals are squaring off in the premier game of Week 9. Both teams are ranked in the top ten of the latest AP Poll, and an LSU win over Auburn on Saturday would almost certainly set up a No. 1 vs. No. 2 match-up in two weeks’ time when Alabama hosts LSU.

AUBURN TIGERS AT LSU TIGERS
CFB LINE: LSU -10.5
CFB TOTAL: 58.5

We’ve seen plenty of movement on this NCAAF betting line over the last two days. LSU opened as an 11-point favorite, and that line rose to LSU -12.5 on Monday before Auburn bettors took over. Auburn money moved the line all the way down to 10 before it rebounded to where it sits at LSU -10.5. There has been minimal action on the total so far, but early indications are that the number is more likely to fall than rise.

RECENT HISTORY

LSU has won nine of the last 12 meetings in this rivalry, but we’ve seen upsets reign supreme over the last three years. The lower-ranked team has won each of the last three games in this series, and LSU has knocked off an Auburn team ranked in the AP Top Ten the last two seasons.

WHEN AUBURN HAS THE BALL

Bo Nix is still a freshman, but he has improved by leaps and bounds from week to week. Nix was thrown into the fire with his first collegiate start coming in the season opener against Oregon, but he overcame some growing pains to lead the Tigers to the win. He had an abysmal outing on the road against Florida three weeks ago, yet this LSU defense is not as talented as Florida’s unit.

Gus Malzahn will want to run the ball as much as possible. Auburn runs the ball on over 63 percent of plays, placing the Tigers in the top ten in terms of how often they like to run. This ground game has been solid, averaging 5.3 YPC, and both Nix and backup quarterback Joey Gatewood have run the ball often in this system. LSU must respect both quarterbacks’ running ability on Saturday, or else the Bayou Bengals could lose as a double-digit favorite per the college football betting odds.

LSU’s defense has not been great this season. The Tigers are just barely ranked inside the top 30 in terms of SP+ on defense, and Texas, Vanderbilt, and Florida all had success moving the ball against this unit. The run defense is allowing just 3.0 YPC, but the secondary has been a bigger issue.

WHEN LSU HAS THE BALL

We’ve been raving about Joe Burrow’s incredible season, and the LSU quarterback is now the frontrunner to win the Heisman Trophy following Tua Tagovailoa’s ankle injury. Burrow has already set some single-season passing records in just eight games of action, and he is on pace to hold every important single-season record in LSU history if he continues to produce at this pace.

Burrow would set the NCAA single-season completion percentage record if his numbers held steady for the rest of this campaign. He is completing a dizzying 79.4 percent of his passes, and he is averaging 11.4 YPA. Burrow has thrown 29 touchdowns against just three interceptions, making this one of the most lethal offenses in the country.

LSU can run the ball too. The Bayou Bengals proved they can gash good defenses for big yards when they ran all over Florida two weeks ago in Baton Rouge, and they would love to do the same against the Tigers this time around. That will likely prove difficult considering Auburn’s defensive line is arguably the best in the country.

PREDICTION

A solid outing from Burrow would likely make him the odds-on favorite to win the Heisman Trophy next week. Burrow should have a great game provided his offensive line can keep the pocket clean, but that’s easier said than done against a menacing pass rush. If the offensive line plays well, expect LSU to score 35 points or more against Auburn.

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