College Football: Auburn Tigers at Ole Miss Rebels

The Auburn Tigers are no longer in contention to win the SEC West, but they are still one of the best teams in the country. Auburn proved its mettle in its season opening victory over Oregon, and the Tigers’ two losses this season have come against top ten teams. The Tigers lost to No. 1 LSU last week, and they fell to No. 6 Florida earlier in the season, so they are the top two-loss team in the nation. They can move back into the AP Top Ten this week with a win over Ole Miss and a little bit of luck this weekend.

AUBURN TIGERS -18.5 VS. OLE MISS REBELS, O/U 52.5

Oddsmakers opened Auburn as an 18.5-point favorite against Ole Miss per the NCAAF betting odds, and the line moved up to 20 points as the weak progressed. We have seen the line shift back to where it opened over the last 24 hours though. The total has dropped slightly since it opened, as the Rebels don’t have the offense we have seen in Oxford in previous seasons.

RECENT HISTORY

Ole Miss has only defeated Auburn four times in the last two decades. Auburn has won by at least 11 points in each of the last three meetings, and each of those games saw at least 57 points scored.

WHEN AUBURN HAS THE BALL

Bo Nix has had his share of ups and downs as a freshman quarterback. Nix was excellent in Auburn’s blowout win over Mississippi State, but he was not sharp in losses to LSU and Florida. He completed just 15 of 35 passes for 157 yards with one touchdown and one interception against the Bayou Bengals, and he was even worse against Florida. The Gators limited Nix to 11-27 passing for 145 yards with one touchdown and three interceptions.

Nix wasn’t great against Oregon or Tulane, but he doesn’t need to be great to win games with Auburn. He is only completing 53.9 percent of his passes this year, and he has not completed a pass longer than 50 yards.

Both he and Joey Gatewood have ben competent runners, and that’s what’s important in Gus Malzahn’s system. Malzahn calls for quarterbacks to run and throw to keep defenses off balance and mobility is a little more important than accuracy.

Auburn has the 29^th best offense in the country per SP+, and this run game has been outstanding. The Tigers are averaging 5.1 YPC, and Malzahn and company rely on the run to move the chains. Ole Miss has been very good against the run though, so Nix will need to move the ball through the air on a defense that is allowing 7.7 YPA. If he doesn’t, the Rebels stand a good chance of covering per the CFB betting odds.

WHEN OLE MISS HAS THE BALL

The Rebels run the ball almost as much as Auburn. Ole Miss has done a good job moving the chains on the ground this season, but the passing game has been woeful. This offense is rated 78^th in the country per SP+ due in large part to the play of quarterbacks Matt Corral and John Rhys Plumlee.

Corral is the better passing option, but he is a much worse runner than Plumlee. Corral is completing 59.9 percent of his passes and is averaging 7.5 YPA, but he is running for just 2.4 YPC. Meanwhile, Plumlee is averaging 5.9 YPC and is Ole Miss’ second-leading rusher. However, he has been wildly inaccurate, completing just 47.6 percent of his passes and is averaging 5.6 YPA.

Auburn has one of the best defensive lines in the nation, and the Tigers will stop the run against Ole Miss. To beat Auburn, you have to beat the defense through the air, and Ole Miss hasn’t shown it can do that throughout the year.

PREDICTION

Don’t expect a lot of scoring or big plays. Neither Auburn nor Ole Miss has completed a pass of 50 yards or longer, and both teams want to take the air out of the ball. That should lead to a low-scoring game, and Auburn could underwhelm a bit after last week’s loss to LSU.

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