College Football: Baylor at TCU

The Revivalry is one of the most underrated rivalries in college football. Due to their religious roots and relative proximity, the Baylor Bears and TCU Horned Frogs have a mutual disdain for one another. They have met 114 times in their history, and this has been a relatively evenly fought rivalry with TCU leading the all-time series 55-52-7. The Horned Frogs would love nothing more than to ruin one of their biggest rival’s undefeated season, and the oddsmakers believe that TCU has a good chance of pulling off the upset considering the small college football betting line in this game.

BAYLOR BEARS AT TCU HORNED FROGS
CFB LINE: BAYLOR -2.5
CFB TOTAL: 48

Baylor opened at -1 on Sunday afternoon, and bettors have shown some faith in the Bears. That has led to a small line move, but nothing major, since the number has not reached three. The total has seen significant action from where it initially opened though. The NCAAF betting odds initially had this over/under set at 52, but it has since dropped by four points.

RECENT HISTORY

TCU has won the last four meetings between these two teams. Two of those meetings have been high scoring, but this game is not expected to be high scoring as both Matt Rhule and Gary Patterson are leaning on their defenses. The last time Baylor beat TCU was in 2014 when the Bears erased a three-touchdown deficit in the final 11 minutes to beat the Horned Frogs. That loss kept TCU out of the College Football Playoff and led to both teams nearly being included in the top four.

WHEN TCU HAS THE BALL

The big question coming into this game is whether Max Duggan will be able to play. Duggan injured the middle finger on his throwing hand in the final drive of TCU’s loss to Oklahoma State last week. He was considered probable by Patterson earlier in the week, but there has yet to be definite confirmation with regards to his status.

Duggan gives TCU the best chance to win due to his athleticism. He took over for Alex Delton as the starting quarterback earlier this year, and TCU’s offense has looked better with him under center. Duggan has been a decent passer as a freshman, completing 57.7 percent of his passes for over 1,400 yards with 12 touchdowns and four interceptions, but he is an excellent runner. He is averaging 4.1 YPC on the year, keeping defenses off balance with his mobility.

If Duggan can’t play, we’re not quite sure who will start at quarterback for the Horned Frogs. Back-up quarterback Mike Collins is considered doubtful after suffering an upper body injury on the last play of the game against Oklahoma State, and Delton has stepped away from the team.

Jalen Reagor has been TCU’s top receiving threat, while Pro Wells has been the one to watch in the red zone. He has only caught 12 passes, but five of those have been for touchdowns, highlighting how the Horned Frogs like to use his frame to find good matchups in condensed areas.

Baylor has the best defense in the Big 12, and the Bears will be out to get after Duggan. This defense is in the top 20 nationally in most major categories, allowing 3.3 YPC and 6.2 YPA. The Bears have been great at creating havoc, and they know how important it is to disrupt opposing quarterbacks’ rhythm. That’s why the under remains a great bet per the CFB betting odds.

WHEN BAYLOR HAS THE BALL

Rhule has done an excellent job of completing changing Baylor’s offensive philosophy in the short time he has been in Waco. The Bears are a run-first team now, and they have done an excellent job moving the ball on the ground. John Lovett and Jamycal Hasty are both averaging 6.3 YPC as Baylor’s top two running backs this year, and Rhule rotates them to keep them fresh.

Charlie Brewer is just the right quarterback for Rhule in this system. He isn’t the most talented quarterback in the world, but he makes the right decision nearly every time and knows when to stretch the field and when to dump it underneath. Brewer has completed 67.6 percent of his passes on the year, and he is averaging 9.7 YPA with only three interceptions.

Denzel Mims and Tyquan Thornton have been his top two receivers. They have caught nearly half his passes, and they are responsible for more than half of Baylor’s receiving yards. Patterson is a defensive coach that loves to coach his defensive backs, so look for him to employ a scheme to slow these two down.

PREDICTION

If Duggan can’t go, the college football betting odds will shift dramatically for this game. The Horned Frogs have a great chance to pull off the upset, if he does play though so keep an eye on social for updates about his status.

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