College Football: Baylor Bears at Oklahoma State Cowboys

By BetOnline October 17, 2019

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The Baylor Bears have won all six of their games to start the year – yes, Baylor is still undefeated – and now they face one of their tougher tests of the season to date as they visit the Oklahoma State Cowboys. The Cowboys were ranked in the Top 25 earlier this year but have since lost two of three with the losses coming to Texas and Texas Tech. Coming off a bye, can they hand Baylor their first loss of the year?

BAYLOR BEARS AT OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS
CFB ODDS: OKLAHOMA STATE -3.5
CFB TOTAL: 65.5

WHY THE BEARS WILL COVER THE SPREAD

The Bears play very tough defense. The old Baylor teams under former coach Art Briles were able to outscore opponents, winning games with scores of 61-58 or 49-42. These Baylor teams under coach Matt Rhule win with defense and making fewer mistakes than opponents. Baylor plays with a slower pace and uses more ball control, which is uncommon for the Big 12. The defense doesn’t give up as many chunk plays and it forces offenses to slowly move the ball down the field. They’re currently 23rd in rushing defense in the country and second-best in the Big 12. That’s shocking considering how Baylor defenses of old used to play.

The Bears haven’t allowed 30 points in any regulation-length game this season. They’re allowing an average of just under 18 points per game. The question is can they maintain this on the road against a pretty good offense in Stillwater?

Oklahoma State has allowed 36 or more points in three different games this season. Baylor clearly has the better defense and if that’s the style of game that’s played on Saturday, they should remain undefeated.

WHY THE COWBOYS WILL COVER THE SPREAD

The Cowboys are in a good position here. For one thing, they had last week off, which means they have had two weeks to prepare for Baylor and scout the Bears. Second, Oklahoma State – in what is unusual for a school of its size – is playing just its third home game of the season. That crowd will be roaring on Saturday.

The key for the Cowboys is to make this a shootout. The Pokes are seventh in the country in yards per game (518.0) per game and 19th in points per game (36.6). Baylor has had a great year so far but four of their six games were at home and one of the road games was at Rice. They’re stepping into a buzz saw this week and it could get uncomfortable for them. The Cowboys are 12-3 SU and 10-5 ATS in their last 15 as a home favorite of 3.5 to seven points.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE TOTAL

The expectation from Vegas is that this will be a 34-31 Oklahoma State win. That seems a little high scoring, given Baylor’s defensive average and since Oklahoma State’s win over previously unbeaten Kansas State was a 26-13 game. There haven’t been as many shootouts in the Big 12 this season as one would expect based on past results. This game will probably go under the number.