College Football Betting: Air Force at Boise State

Friday night action on the blue ‘Smurf Turf’ as the Boise State Broncos host the Air Force Falcons. Both teams are undefeated on the year with Air Force 2-0 SU/ATS and Boise State 3-0 SU/1-1 ATS. Air Force is off of a big win last week against in-state rival Colorado. The mainstream sports media reported it like it was some type of massive upset. It wasn’t–the Buffs were a -3 point home favorite–but still a solid victory for the Air Force program. The Falcons’ other game this year was a 48-7 home blowout of overmatched Colgate with AF covering as a -20.5 home chalk. It’s unclear whether the Hamilton, NY team had more issues with the Air Force option or the Colorado Springs altitude of 6,035′ above sea level.


The Falcons will drop down to 2,700 feet above sea level this week but there’s no reason to expect their game to drop off much even coming off of their big win against Colorado. It’s hard to figure what we’ve got with Boise State this year. They opened the season winning 36-31 at Florida State which looks less impressive now that the Seminoles have opened their season 1-2 than it did at the time. They then prevailed in a strange low scoring struggle against Marshall winning 14-7 as -14 home favorites. Last week they hosted overmatched Portland State and as expected bludgeoned the Vikings 45-10.

Boise State has done a good job defending the Air Force option during the past two seasons. Overall, however, the Broncos are no longer a great play on their unusual home turf. At one point, Boise State minus whatever number at home was an almost automatic play. Over the past few years, however, they’ve slipped somewhat at home and the market has also caught up with them. During the last three years the Broncos are 13-3 SU at home but only 6-8 ATS. This is only the second time in the past three years that they’ve been a home favorite in this price range (-7.5 to -10) but they failed to cover in the previous situation. They’ve been awful in home games with a total between 49.5 and 56 going 1-6 ATS last 3 years and going further back are on a 9-17 ATS run in this price range. They’re also on a run of 8-19 ATS as a home chalk overall.

Air Force, on the other hand, has been one of the best underdogs in college football betting in recent years. As a road underdog, the Falcons are on a spectacular 11-2-1 ATS run. As a road underdog in this price range (7.5 to 10 points) they’re 3-1 in the last 3 seasons and 10-2 dating back even further. They’ve also been very competitive against the Broncos and enter on a 5-1 ATS run overall that includes a 3-1 ATS run in Boise. Boise won by 10 in Colorado Springs last year pushing against the -10 point spread. Broncos will win but the Falcons will make it tough.


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