College Football Betting: Auburn Tigers at Florida Gators

College Gameday will be in Gainesville for the top ten match-up between the Florida Gators and the Auburn Tigers this week, and one of these teams will be dealt their first loss of the season. Despite playing in the same conference, these two teams haven’t met often over the last two decades, but Auburn will be out to continue a trend. The Tigers have won four of the last five games in this series, and they haven’t lost since 2002.

AUBURN TIGERS AT FLORIDA GATORS
LINE: AUBURN -3
TOTAL: 46.5

There has been a bit of movement on this game. Auburn opened as a three-point favorite per the college football betting odds, but the line quickly moved down to 2.5 points. It has since risen back to three as money has come in on the Tigers, and the line is likely to continue moving in that direction.

INJURY REPORT

Auburn might not have receivers Ja’Varrius Johnson and Shedrick Jackson available for this game. Linebacker Derick Hall is questionable due to a knee injury, and offensive lineman Bailey Sharp will miss the next few weeks after undergoing surgery.

The Gators are going to be very healthy coming into this game. Wide receiver Kadarius Toney is currently the only major contributor expected to miss the game as multiple stars on defense return. Defensive end Jabari Zuniga and cornerback CJ Henderson are arguably the two best players on this defense, and they will be back after missing the last few weeks. Safety Shawn Davis and wide receiver Freddie Swain are set to return too.

WHEN AUBURN HAS THE BALL

The Tigers have been one of the most impressive teams in the country this year, and Gus Malzahn has done a great job making this offense click with a freshman quarterback. Bo Nix has been efficient this year, completing 57.6 percent of his passes for 980 yards with seven touchdowns and two interceptions. He is also the team’s second leading rusher with 4.9 yards per carry, and his play has helped make Auburn the 16th best offense in the country per SP+. Although Nix is the starter, fellow freshman Joey Gatewood will see a few snaps against the Gators, but he has run 22 times and has only thrown five passes this season, so Gatewood is likely to come in on a run option.

This offense has moved the ball against Oregon, Texas A&M, and Mississippi State, and Auburn’s play against Mississippi State last week was very impressive. Nix had a career day, throwing for 335 yards and two touchdowns, and he was the team’s leading rusher with 56 yards and a score. The Bulldogs were without their best player on defense, but it was still a confidence inspiring performance.

Auburn wants to keep the ball on the ground as much as possible, so look for the Tigers to run early and often against Florida. The Tigers have run the ball on 62.8 percent of plays, and this team is averaging 5.3 yards per run this season. Florida has allowed just 3.1 yards per carry, but the Gators have not played a team that can run the ball like Auburn. This will be Florida’s toughest test all year, so if the Gators want to cover per the NCAAF betting odds they need to stop the run.

WHEN FLORIDA HAS THE BALL

This will be Kyle Trask’s third start for the Gators. Trask took over for Feleipe Franks after Franks suffered a season-ending injury against Kentucky, and he acquitted himself well. The junior quarterback that hadn’t started in seven years led the Gators back from a 21-10 deficit to beat the Wildcats.

He was a little shaky against Tennessee, throwing two interceptions against the Volunteers, but he put up solid numbers against both the Vols and Towson. Dan Mullen has tried to put Trask in favorable situations, allowing him to become comfortable, but Trask will be forced to beat Auburn’s secondary through the air if the Gators are going to win on Saturday.

Auburn has the best defensive line in the country. The Tigers have done an excellent job of stopping opponents from having success running the ball, and it’s very unlikely that the Gators can break through this front. Florida is averaging just 4.4 yards per carry this season, and leading rusher Lamical Perine is picking up only 3.7 yards a pop. With that in mind, taking Florida running backs under their NCAAF player props is a wise move.

PREDICTION

The key for this game will be whether Trask can move the ball through the air on Auburn. I don’t think the young quarterback will have much success in this area, so I see the Tigers winning a low-scoring game.

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