College Football Totals Betting: Michigan State Spartans at Ohio State Buckeyes

By BetOnline October 2, 2019

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Can the oddsmakers make the spread high enough on Ohio State Buckeyes contests? They’ve laid -14.5, -17.5, -38.5 and -17 in each of the last four weeks and have covered every single time. They’re fresh off a 48-7 blowout over Nebraska in what was supposed to be their toughest test to date. Now they’ll get a visit from No. 25 Michigan State, who is probably the first opponent on their calendar that can push them.

MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS AT OHIO STATE BUCKEYES
CFB ODDS: OHIO STATE -20
CFB TOTAL: 49

WHY THE SPARTANS WILL COVER THE SPREAD

The Spartans have a very minimal chance of actually winning this game, but they have a defense which can certainly enable them to cover the spread.

Michigan State has one of the best defensive lines in the country. If they can apply pressure, they can possibly slow down Ohio State’s offense. Michigan State is currently tied for 18th in the country in terms of sacks and they have compiled 16 in five games.

Fields has faced teams like Nebraska, Cincinnati and Florida Atlantic, and he has not been pressured a lot. Yes, he is quick on his feet and can therefore dance out of trouble when he gets chased in the pocket. It’s really something that this team hasn’t had to deal with so far as Fields has been sacked just seven times in the last four games.

On offense, Michigan State has a seasoned quarterback in Brian Lewerke, who won’t be phased by the big moment on the road. Of course, the offense has had many hiccups this season but at least Lewerke gives this team the veteran hand they’ll need to pull this out on the road.

WHY THE BUCKEYES WILL COVER THE SPREAD

The Buckeyes are simply executing at an extremely high level on both sides of the ball. They have blown out each of their first two Big Ten opponents this season, both on the road. They crushed Indiana and swamped Nebraska by a similar margin. They have had very few sequences this year in which they played poorly. They played the first seven to 10 minutes poorly against Miami of Ohio a few weeks ago and other than that, it is very hard to identify a period of time in which Ohio State struggled.

It would be one thing if they were eking out wins against bad teams. They’re crushing decent ones as they went on the road and beat Indiana 51-10. Michigan State hosted Indiana last week and nearly lost the game outright.

A lot will be made of Michigan State’s defense and the defensive line, but you have to look at the full body of work. They couldn’t get stops against Arizona State when they needed to and Indiana scored 31 points against them last week. It was actually the Spartans offense that saved them last week, not the defense.

As for that offense, bettors should be concerned. They have the 29th-ranked passing offense and 65th-ranked rush defense. If this is any type of a shootout, they’re not going to have the weapons to go blow-for-blow.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE TOTAL

This comes down to the matchup between the Michigan State defense and the Ohio State offense. The Michigan State offense is bad and it does not figure to test the Ohio State defense frequently.

This game depends on whether Ohio State scores in the 40’s or in the low 30’s or high 20’s. The feeling here is that the speed of Justin Fields will wear out Michigan State’s defensive line but it might not be the type of gaudy number we’ve seen in recent weeks from the Buckeyes.

Two straight meetings have gone under including five of the last eight meetings at Ohio State. We’re probably looking at another under here.