College Football Betting: Cincinnati Bearcats at Houston Cougars

The Cincinnati Bearcats are the new kings of the AAC. Cincinnati knocked off Group of Five juggernaut UCF last week to stake its claim as the best team in the conference, and the Bearcats will look to pick up a key win against the Houston Cougars in cross-division play on Saturday afternoon.

CINCINNATI BEARCATS AT HOUSTON COUGARS
CFB LINE: CINCINNATI -7.5
CFB TOTAL: 51.5

We have seen considerable movement on both the side and the total in this game. Cincinnati opened as a five-point road favorite according to the college football betting odds, but action on the Bearcats quickly caused that line to rise to 7. It has since passed that key number, indicating it could rise more before kickoff.

Meanwhile, the total has plummeted from 55 to 51.5. Cincinnati has one of the stingiest defenses in college football, but Houston’s defense is ranked outside of the top 100 per SP+.

RECENT HISTORY

These teams don’t play often, and they have only squared off four times this decade. They have split those meetings with Cincinnati winning by one score in 2013 and 2014, and Houston winning in 2015 and 2016. The Cougars smashed the Bearcats 40-16 in their last meeting.

WHEN HOUSTON HAS THE BALL

Clayton Tune is the new starting quarterback for the Cougars. Tune took over the starting role after D’Eriq King surprised everyone by announcing that he was redshirting this season despite starting the first four games. There has been plenty of speculation that he will head to Oklahoma, and we might see NCAAF Futures markets open up regarding here King will play in 2020.

Tune saw his first action of 2019 last week against North Texas, and he didn’t do much. The young quarterback completed 16 of 20 passes for 124 yards with a touchdown as Dana Holgorsen made the decision to keep the ball on the ground as much as possible. Tune saw some action last season, but he completed just over 50 percent of his passes, so Holgorsen is going to try to protect his quarterback as much as possible in the passing game.

The Cougars will aim to run the ball in multiple looks with Tune and Patrick Carr leading the way. Both players finished with more than 100 rushing yards last week against North Texas, and Kyle Porter should return to the lineup too after missing last week’s game due to injury.

This Cincinnati defense is great. Luke Fickell is a defensive-minded head coach, and his philosophy is embodied in a physical defense that will punish you in all four quarters. The Bearcats stopped UCF’s ground game in its tracks last week, and they are surrendering just 3.4 YPC on the season. Only Ohio State has had success against Cincinnati, and Houston does not have nearly the same athletes.

WHEN CINCINNATI HAS THE BALL

No one will confuse the Bearcats for a high-octane offense, but Cincinnati has done a decent job of moving the ball this year. Desmond Ridder has continued to grow as a quarterback, and his numbers this season have been solid given what he is asked to do for this team. Ridder has completed 62 percent of his passes, and he is averaging 7.5 YPA with 10 touchdowns against just four interceptions.

Alec Pierce and Josiah Deguara have been his favorite targets, and they are the only two players on the Bearcats with more than 100 yards receiving. Keep that in mind if you are betting NCAA player props for this game.

Michael Warren II and Tavion Thomas are averaging 4.7 YPC on the season, and Fickell is probably going to feed Houston’s defense a steady dose of these two running backs. They are both 220-pound running backs that punish you with runs in between the tackles, and the Cougars have been susceptible to the run this season. Houston is allowing a whopping 6.1 YPC, which is one of the worst numbers in the country.

PREDICTION

If you watched Houston and Army play in the Armed Forces Bowl last year, you saw what a great running game can do against Houston’s front seven. The Black Knights racked up over 500 rushing yards against the Cougars, and this unit has not shown much improvement. Warren and Thomas could post career days for Cincinnati in a double-digit win.

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