College Football Betting Money Makers Through End Of Season

The college football season is over and the Clemson Tigers have been crowned National Champions. Before we close the book on College Football betting 2018 we’re going to take a look at the ‘national championship’ that matters—the top moneymakers against the pointspread. No matter the sport it’s important to understand team valuation. More specifically, it’s essential to know which teams are ‘profitable’ and which teams are ‘money losers’. This information has some intrinsic value but is most useful in isolating teams that are overvalued and undervalued relative to the pointspread. In this article we’ll look at the most profitable college football betting teams through the end of the 2018 season. We’ll follow this up tomorrow with a look at the biggest money losers in college football this year.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL MONEYMAKERS

Here’s a valuable lesson—none of the top teams in college football were anywhere near the top of the table in terms of betting profits. Clemson, Alabama, Ohio State, Oklahoma and Notre Dame went a combined 66-5 straight up during the 2018 season. The top five college football teams were a not so impressive 35-33-3 against the pointspread for a net loss of -1.7 units. Clemson made the most money for financial backers going 9-6 against the college football pointspread good for +2.4 units of profit. Alabama finished 8-7 for +0.3 units of profit. The rest of the top five all lost money for bettors.

The moral of the story? There are several. It’s no secret that these teams are among the college football elite which is why every recreational player from South Bend to Tuscaloosa lined up to bet on them every week. Public love translates to ‘shaded’ lines meaning that on balance they were overvalued by definition. A good team shows up every week expected not only to win but to dominate. That’s tough to do week after week and particularly when your opponent can ‘make their season’ with a victory.

This isn’t to say that you can’t bet good teams in the right situations. What you can’t do, however, is to back the college football elite week after week and expect to finish in the black. The opposite is also true. You can’t reflexively bet against the doormats of college football. There were five teams at the FBS level that finished 1-11 this season: Rutgers, San Jose, State, UTEP, Central Michigan and Connecticut. These teams went a combined 5-55 straight up but a combined 27-33 ATS. Two of the five teams turned a profit for their ‘financial backers’. Were it not for the poor performance of Connecticut (3-9 ATS for a -6.9 unit loss) the remaining four teams would have gone 24-24 against the spread.

So what were the top money making teams in college football this year? You’ll find out below. Unlike our mid season reports we won’t go into too much depth on each team since there are no more betting opportunities until this Fall and by then the dynamic could have changed completely. As luck (?) would have it there are three teams tied for the ‘most profitable’ crown:

UTAH STATE (+6.7 UNITS)

Nothing much was expected out of Utah State heading into the 2018 season. The Aggies had finished 6-7 in 2017 and 3-9 in 2016. Instead, they surprised everybody going 11-2 SU and 10-3 ATS. The public is slow to notice changes in the WAC balance of power and never realized how good Utah State was. The team will be worth watching in 2019 despite a coaching change. Texas Tech hired former Aggies head coach Matt Wells in early December. A couple of weeks later, Utah State hired Gary Anderson who will return for his second stint as Aggies’ head coach. He’s bringing the University of Utah’s linebackers coach Justin Ena up to Logan to serve as defensive coordinator.

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL (+6.7 UNITS)

The Golden Panthers of Florida International tied for second in the East Division of Conference USA but tied for first in the hearts of sports bettors. 9-4 straight up, 10-3-0 against the spread. Unlike the Utah State Aggies, this wasn’t an unexpected turnaround for a moribund program. FIU finished 8-5 SU in 2017 so they overachieved slightly based on the expectations from the previous year. Once again, however, it’s a case of the ‘public’ ignoring what is going on in the lower tier conferences.

WASHINGTON STATE (+6.7 UNITS)

You can’t make the ‘low profile conference’ argument here for the Pac-12 Washington State Cougars. The Cougars may have overachieved slightly in 2018 but they’ve been pretty decent in recent years going 8-5 overall and 7-2 in conference in 2016 followed by a 2017 performance of 9-4 overall and 6-3 in conference. 2018 saw them go 11-2 SU and 10-3 ATS.