College Football Betting: Oklahoma Sooners vs. Texas Longhorns

The Red River Shootout means something again. For the first time this decade, the Big 12’s best rivalry had real stakes last season as the Texas Longhorns made a claim that they were back with a 48-45 win over the Oklahoma Sooners. Oklahoma got the last laugh by knocking off Texas in the Big 12 Championship Game, but the win was enough to propel the Longhorns to a 10-win season. The winner of this year’s Red River Shootout will be in the catbird’s seat for a spot in this year’s conference title game.

OKLAHOMA SOONERS VS. TEXAS LONGHORNS (IN DALLAS, TX)
LINE: OKLAHOMA -11.5
TOTAL: 75.5

The Red River Shootout has the highest total of any game this week. Oddsmakers have set the college football betting odds for this total at a lofty 75 points after last year’s high-scoring affair, and these offenses have a great chance to surpass that number again. The Sooners have been installed as a double-digit favorite, but they have not covered in this rivalry game since 2012.

RECENT HISTORY

Oklahoma’s 12-point win in the Big 12 Championship Game was the Sooners’ first victory over Texas by more than one score since 2012. Although Oklahoma has been favored in most of the rivalry games this decade, they have largely been close games with Texas winning three of the last six Red River Shootouts.

WHEN OKLAHOMA HAS THE BALL

Lincoln Riley’s offenses have been lethal. Over the last 2.5 years, Riley has established Norman as the place to be if you’re a star quarterback, and he is having unparalleled success with transfers. Jalen Hurts is following in the massive footsteps of Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray and putting up absurd numbers for the Sooners.

Hurts probably won’t win the Heisman Trophy, although he is currently the third favorite per the Heisman Trophy betting odds, but he has Oklahoma rated as the top offense in the nation once again per SP+. The Sooners have a devastating ground game with Hurts at the helm, and he is averaging 8.8 YPC. Oklahoma is rushing for 7.7 YPC as a team, as opponents are getting killed by the RPO.

The former Alabama quarterback has proven to be a more than capable passer too, completing 75.2 percent of his passes for over 1,500 yards with 14 touchdowns and two interceptions. Hurts saw how both LSU and Oklahoma State moved the ball through the air against Texas’ cornerbacks, and he is likely to throw for well over 300 yards if you want to bet his NCAAF player props.

Texas’ defense has given up 30 points or more against LSU, Oklahoma State, and West Virginia this year, and none of those offenses are as explosive as Oklahoma. The Sooners should put up at least 40 points on this defense.

WHEN TEXAS HAS THE BALL

Everyone who criticized Sam Ehlinger this offseason is eating some crow. Ehlinger has been one of the top quarterbacks in the country, and he is a fringe Heisman Trophy candidate with his play. Texas has a top ten offense per SP+ thanks in large part to Ehlinger.

He has completed 69.4 percent of his passes this year, averaging 8.4 YPA with 17 touchdowns and two interceptions. Ehlinger picks up tough yards on the ground with his bruising frame, and he is averaging 4.6 YPA through five games.

Devin Duvernay might end up becoming a first-round talent with his play through the first half of the season. Duvernay has been Ehlinger’s go-to receiver catching 45 passes when the next most productive receiver has just 16 receptions. For Texas to pull off the upset, Duvernay will probably have to go for at least 100 yards or more.

This game is the reason why Alex Grinch was brought to Norman. Riley finally said enough was enough with an increasingly underperforming defense, so Grinch came from Ohio State to turn this unit around. Early results have been promising, but Oklahoma has had some hiccups along the way. If Grinch can hold this Texas offense to under 30 points, he could earn himself a Power Five coaching gig next year.

PREDICTION

I like Oklahoma to win this game by double digits but wait to see if the college football betting odds drop closer to kickoff. There should be action on Texas given the recent history between these two schools, but Oklahoma is just too strong and will win by two scores.

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