College Football Betting: Oklahoma State Cowboys at Texas Tech Red Raiders

By BetOnline October 2, 2019

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The Oklahoma State Cowboys are in the midst of a positive campaign. They’re back in the Top 25 after beating No. 24 Kansas State last week. Their only loss on the year was on the road to No. 12 Texas.

Now they get what looks to be a layup against a Texas Tech Red Raiders team that has been regressing team. Can the Pokes take care of business or will they get tripped up in Lubbock?

OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS AT TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS
CFB ODDS: OKLAHOMA STATE -10
CFB TOTAL: 63.5

WHY THE COWBOYS WILL COVER THE SPREAD

The Oklahoma State Cowboys play in the Big 12 Conference, which is known for its wide-open, high-scoring games. The Big 12, in the past few years, has been a league in which giving up 35 points per game actually isn’t that bad. Limiting a team to a point total in the 30’s often makes victory possible. Lots of Big 12 offenses are able to score in the 40’s or 50’s, so giving up 35-point scores is not terrible. It will usually lead to a win.

With that in mind, Oklahoma State is getting what it needs from its defense. The Cowboys allowed 36 points to Texas – one of the two best teams in the conference along with Oklahoma – and that was not a bad defensive performance. The next week, OSU limited Kansas State to 13 points in a 26-13 victory. As long as Oklahoma State stays on its current course, with the defense being responsible and reliable, the Cowboys should continue to beat the teams they are supposed to beat. Moreover, they should win games by comfortable margins, with the exception of Oklahoma, which has an offensive juggernaut.

Remember that Texas Tech is playing this game without Alan Bowman, the starting quarterback at the beginning of the season. The Red Raiders were lost without Bowman last week against Oklahoma as they were blown out 55-16. They scored only 16 points and didn’t score any points in the fourth quarter when Oklahoma was playing its defensive backups. That is an alarming lack of production.

Oklahoma State has sometimes beaten Texas Tech by scores of 71-53 or similar ranges in recent years. Oklahoma State might not even need 40 points to win this game comfortably given how poorly Texas Tech’s offense is playing without Bowman.

WHY THE RED RAIDERS WILL COVER THE SPREAD

The Red Raiders lost by 39 points to Oklahoma, but that was Oklahoma, a legitimate top-five team with a Heisman Trophy contender, quarterback Jalen Hurts. Don’t allow that loss to a superpower with an elite quarterback to make you think that Texas Tech is terrible. The Red Raiders ran into a great team.

Now they get an Oklahoma State team whose offense is not firing on all cylinders. The Cowboys have averaged under 30 points in their last two Big 12 games against Texas (30 points) and Kansas State (26 points). If Oklahoma State scores no more than 30 points in this game (certainly no more than 35), the Red Raiders should be able to score in the mid-to-high 20s and cover the number.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE TOTAL

The Texas Tech offense without Bowman is not something to trust. And remember, their coaching staff has made a shift in the offseason to get the Red Raiders to be more defensive-minded, so it’s not like things were before when you could plug-and-play quarterbacks. This offense has labored this season, scoring a total of 30 points in their last two games. Oklahoma State might score 40 points, but can Texas Tech score 27 to get us over the number? This will probably go under.