College Football Betting: CFP Odds Update
The best teams in the country have yet to lose this season. Georgia, Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, and Oklahoma were the top five teams in the preseason AP Top 25 Poll, and all five of those schools still have CFP futures odds of 10-1 or less to win it all. None of those schools will face real tests this week, save Ohio State. The Buckeyes must face a Michigan State team that has given them trouble this decade, but at least that game is at home. Let’s look at where the top teams and the contenders stand headed into Week 6.
ODDS TO WIN THE COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFFS
OHIO STATE +650
PENN STATE +4000
NOTRE DAME +6600
ALL OTHER TEAMS AT LEAST +10000
To no one’s surprise, Alabama and Clemson continue to be the teams to beat. The two schools have combined to win the last four national championships, and they have met in the CFP National Championship three times.
Alabama appears to be the most dominant team in the country. The Crimson Tide have pasted each of their five opponents this season, and Tua Tagovailoa has yet to turn the ball over. Tagovailoa is the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy according to college football futures odds, and it’s hard to imagine Alabama missing out on making the CFP unless Tagovailoa ends up injured. The Crimson Tide can probably afford one loss and still make it to their sixth straight CFP. They are the only team in the country that has made the CFP in each of its first five seasons.
The defending national champions have yet to lose, but Clemson does not look like a team likely to repeat. The Tigers only just squeaked by North Carolina last week, as the Tar Heels came within a missed two-point conversion of providing the biggest upset of the season.
Trevor Lawrence is having a bit of a sophomore slump. Lawrence has tossed five interceptions through five games, and he is looking more like a young, inexperienced quarterback than the savant we saw for most of last year. Fortunately, Clemson plays in the ACC, where there are no other elite teams. No other team in the conference has an SP+ rating in the top 30, so Clemson is expected to finish the year unbeaten. However, a loss would likely take the Tigers out of title contention due to its weak conference.
Georgia has been very impressive this year, and like Alabama, the Bulldogs can probably afford a loss given the strength of the SEC. The Bulldogs have a very nice win on their resume already, knocking off Notre Dame in September, and Kirby Smart has brought a lot of talent to Athens with recruiting classes that rival the Crimson Tide. Georgia will be favored by at least 20 points per the college football betting odds in its next three games, but the World’s Largest Cocktail Party clash with Florida looms large.
There’s been no drop off from Urban Meyer to Ryan Day. Day is proving that he was the right man for the job, as Ohio State is pasting opponents. The Buckeyes have won every game by at least 24 points, and Justin Fields has been fantastic. Fields has a rushing touchdown and a passing touchdown in every game so far this season. This defense has been stingy too, and the Buckeyes are rated No. 3 in defense per SP+.
LSU was considered in the second tier of contenders at the start of the year, but the Bayou Bengals have shown that they are a real threat to claim the title. Joe Burrow is having the best season for a quarterback in school history, but the Tigers’ schedule is too daunting. LSU must face Florida, Mississippi State, Auburn, and Alabama after taking on Utah State this week. It’s going to be difficult to escape that stretch without a loss, but two losses would end this team’s national title aspirations.
The Sooners are the last of the heavyweights this season. When talking about Oklahoma, most of the conversation centers around Jalen Hurts, but this run game has been the best in the country. The Sooners are averaging more than 8 YPC as a team this season, and that coupled with a revamped defense could lead to Oklahoma winning its first title in nearly two decades.
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