College Football Betting: Southern Mississippi at Alabama

If you bet on the Alabama Crimson Tide last week, I’m sorry. After a roughing the passer penalty kept the South Carolina Gamecocks’ final drive alive, Ryan Hilinski hit Kyle Markway for a touchdown with 11 seconds left that gave the Gamecocks the cover per the college football betting odds. It was a tough way to lose, but if we’re being honest, Alabama didn’t deserve to cover the game. The Crimson Tide didn’t move in front of the number until there was 2:04 remaining, and Gamecocks bettors would have been hard done if they lost.

Alabama is now 1-2 ATS on the season, and the Crimson Tide enter Saturday’s noon home game with the Southern Miss Golden Eagles as a massive favorite.

SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI GOLDEN EAGLES AT ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE
LINE: ALABAMA -39
TOTAL: 61.5

We have not seen any significant action in one direction or another since the NCAAF betting odds were released for this game on Sunday evening. Only Clemson is a bigger favorite in Week 4, and this will be the fourth straight game in which Alabama is favored by 25 or more points on the football betting line. The total has moved though, jumping from 60 to 61.5.

WHEN ALABAMA HAS THE BALL

It’s early in the season so Alabama fans are overreacting a little bit. The Crimson Tide have crushed all three of their opponents to date, but as with head coach Nick Saban, there always needs to be something to worry about with the fanbase. To that end, Alabama message boards and sports talk shows have been filled with people asking whether the Crimson Tide can run the ball.

The Crimson Tide averaged just three yards per carry against South Carolina last weekend. Although Alabama is picking up 5.4 YPC thus far in 2019, if you take out a Henry Ruggs III 75-yard touchdown run that number falls to 4.7 YPC. Najee Harris is the leading rusher, and he is averaging five yards a pop, so I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a healthy dose of him in this game. He has carried the ball just 31 times this season and could have a big day if Saban decides to really focus on the run game.

If Alabama wanted to run it up and torch Southern Miss’ defense through the air in this one, Tua Tagovailoa could certainly do that. Tagovailoa is averaging 11.1 yards per attempt this season, and he has been incredibly efficient through the air. He has 12 touchdowns with no interceptions, and the Crimson Tide are facing a Golden Eagles defense that has a lot of trouble stopping the aerial game.

Last week against Troy, Southern Miss allowed Trojans’ quarterback Kaleb Barker to throw for over 500 yards and four touchdowns through the air. They weren’t great the week before against a mediocre Mississippi State passing attack either, and Tagovailoa has incredible weapons in Jerry Jeudy and Ruggs that the other schools lack.

WHEN SOUTHERN MISS HAS THE BALL

Although Group of Five schools typically get flattened when they face Alabama, there is reason to believe that Southern Miss will have some success on offense. Along those lines, a bet on the Golden Eagles to go over their team total is a savvy investment.

The Crimson Tide are decimated in the front seven, and four true freshmen are expected to start up front against the Golden Eagles. Christian Harris and Shane Lee have been starting at linebacker after both Dylan Moses and Joshua McMillon went down with season-ending knee injuries. DJ Dale has been starting along the defensive line, and fellow freshman Justin Eboigbe is expected to join him after LaBryan Ray underwent foot surgery this week.

Southern Miss has a decent offense. The Golden Eagles are ranked No. 52 in offense per Bill Connelly’s SP+ ratings, and Jack Abraham has played well in his second season as the team’s starting quarterback. They are averaging just 3.2 yards per carry coming into this game, but the run game is unlikely to be stonewalled due to the youth and inexperience in Alabama’s defensive front.

PREDICTION

This line is likely to fall as we get closer to kickoff so jump on Southern Miss +39 before the NCAAF betting line moves against you. The Golden Eagles aren’t a bad G5 team by any means, and Saban will want to escape further injury and get his young players plenty of snaps with the start of conference play on the horizon.

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