College Football: Kansas State Wildcats at Texas Longhorns

The Texas Longhorns and Kansas State Wildcats both have Big 12 title aspirations, but one of those teams will see its hopes dashed this Saturday. Both teams are 3-2 in conference play, and they can’t afford a third loss if they want to catch either Baylor or Oklahoma to play in the Big 12 Championship Game.

KANSAS STATE WILDCATS AT TEXAS LONGHORNS
COLLEGE FOOTBALL LINE: TEXAS -7
COLLEGE FOOTBALL TOTAL: 58

Texas has had two weeks to prepare for Kansas State, so the Longhorns are a touchdown favorite over the Wildcats per the college football betting odds. The hosts were originally favored by 5.5 points, but the line has moved to seven points as action has come in on Texas.

RECENT HISTORY

Kansas State has a winning record against Texas all-time. The Wildcats are 10-9 against the Longhorns, but Texas has won the last two meetings. Neither one of those wins was convincing though with Texas beating Kansas State by six points in 2017 and five points in 2018.

WHEN KANSAS STATE HAS THE BALL

The Wildcats hired Chris Klieman to replace Bill Snyder this offseason, and the offense hasn’t changed too much under Klieman’s watch. Kansas State is running the ball a lot with quarterback Skylar Thompson, but they are more effective moving the chains on the ground than they were under Snyder last season. They are pulling guards a lot more often, and the Wildcats are just outside the top 40 in total offense per SP+.

Kansas State is running for 4.8 YPC. Thompson is the second leading rusher on the team with 331 yards and 10 touchdowns, and his ability to pick up needed yards on third and short was pivotal to the Wildcats beating Oklahoma two weeks ago. He ran for four touchdowns in the massive upset per the NCAAF betting odds.

Only three players on Kansas State have caught more than 10 passes this season. The Wildcats are not known for their passing prowess, and Thompson has not completed a pass longer than 46 yards this year. He has completed 60.5 percent of his passes, averaging 7.5 YPA, and he has tossed just one interception this season.

Texas does not have a good defense. Attrition robbed the Longhorns of some of their best defensive backs, and they have struggled mightily without them this year. They have the 86^th ranked defense in the nation by SP+ standards and opposing quarterbacks have torched them consistently throughout this season.

WHEN TEXAS HAS THE BALL

Sam Ehlinger has been the star of one of the best offenses in the nation. Texas hasn’t had any trouble scoring points for Tom Herman this season, and the Longhorns have the No. 6 rated offense in the country by SP+.

Ehlinger’s accuracy has improved greatly this season. He is completing almost two-thirds of his passes, averaging 7.8 YPA. He has thrown 23 touchdowns against seven interceptions, and his legs have proven very useful too. Ehlinger has carried the ball 97 times for 367 yards and a team high five touchdowns.

Devin Duvernay is the leading receiver on the team by a mile. He has caught 69 passes (41 more than any other Texas receiver), and he has 800 receiving yards (more than twice as much as any other player on the Longhorns).

Kansas State has done a good job stopping opposing quarterbacks this season. The Wildcats boast an above average pass defense, and that comes in handy in the Big 12. However, they are allowing 5.1 YPC, and that’s an issue. Texas could have a lot of success running the ball against this front seven.

PREDICTION

This should be a high scoring affair. These two teams usually don’t score many points when they square off, but this year is different. Don’t be surprised if this game has 70 points or more.

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