College Football: Kentucky Wildcats at Georgia Bulldogs

Points are going to be at a premium in Sanford Stadium on Saturday afternoon when the Georgia Bulldogs host the Kentucky Wildcats. Georgia will look to shake off a shocking defeat at the hands of South Carolina in this same venue last Saturday, and the Bulldogs are even bigger favorites per the NCAAF betting odds than they were last week against the Gamecocks.

KENTUCKY WILDCATS AT GEORGIA BULLDOGS
CFB LINE: GEORGIA -25
CFB TOTAL: 46

The Wildcats have become a solid team under Mark Stoops, but Kentucky is not in a great position on Saturday. Kentucky is going to have a very difficult time scoring, and that has made the ‘Under’ a popular bet with the total dropping from 48 to 46.5.

RECENT HISTORY

Kentucky has not defeated Georgia since 2009, and only one of the last six meetings between these opponents has been close. The other five games were Bulldogs victories by 17 points or more, pointing to a potential Georgia cover on Saturday.

WHEN KENTUCKY HAS THE BALL

It appears that Lynn Bowden will get the start for Kentucky against Georgia. Bowden is a former high school quarterback that came to Lexington to become a receiver, but injuries have led to Bowden moving under center. Terry Wilson suffered a season-ending injury in Kentucky’s second game of the year, and Sawyer Smith has not fared well since replacing Wilson.

Smith missed last week’s game against Arkansas with shoulder and wrist injuries, so Bowden got the start at quarterback. Offensive coordinator Eddie Gran ran a lot of wildcat looks with the athletic Bowden taking the snaps, and Kentucky carved up Arkansas’ run defense in a 24-20 win. Bowden ran the ball 24 times for 196 yards and two touchdowns, and the Wildcats ran 54 times for 330 yards on the day.

Bowden displayed some prowess as a passer, completing 7 of 11 passes for 78 yards and a touchdown to keep Arkansas from completely selling out. However, Georgia will likely play man to man and dare Bowden to beat them through the air. That’s not likely to happen since Kentucky’s best receiver also happens to be Bowden.

Gran is likely to bring in Smith for at least a change of pace as he has been cleared to play again, but the young quarterback is completing just 46.2 percent of his passes and has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns. The implied total for Kentucky is just 10.5 points per the college football betting odds.

Georgia’s defense is going to eat this offense alive. While good coaching staffs can use gimmicks to get past lesser teams, it’s hard to use gimmicks to beat a defense as talented as the Bulldogs.

WHEN GEORGIA HAS THE BALL

The Bulldogs’ ultra conservative playcalling played a big part in their loss to South Carolina last week, so it will be interesting to see if anything changes on this front. Jake Fromm was responsible for four turnovers, but he also led Georgia down the field late to tie the game and showed that he can make big throws when he must.

Fromm is not put into a position to succeed though. His receivers have had a hard time getting open, and offensive coordinator James Coley is not giving his wideouts an opportunity to rack up YAC. Most of Georgia’s throws against South Carolina were between the numbers and the boundary, making life much easier for the Gamecocks defense when they were in man to man.

Kirby Smart and Coley want to keep the ball on the ground and grind out wins just like Alabama did in the early part of the decade, but Georgia’s run game is not there this year. The offensive line has underwhelmed given the lofty expectations, so wholesale adjustments must be made to the offense if the Bulldogs are going to contend for a national championship. Their odds to win the CFP national championship are currently 14-1.

Kentucky has a mediocre defense, so Georgia will have the ability to experiment somewhat on offense in this game. Don’t be shocked to see Fromm throw the ball 30 times or more to get him more used to what he needs to do in November and December.

PREDICTION

Georgia is going to roll here. If Kentucky had a solid quarterback, the Wildcats might give the Bulldogs a challenge. Given the state of the position, staying within the number looks difficult.