College Football: Missouri Tigers at Georgia Bulldogs

The Georgia Bulldogs opened as the No. 6 team in the initial College Football Playoff rankings. That means that for them to make the final four, they’re going to have to win out and win the SEC Championship Game. It starts with Missouri this weekend, who has been ranked in the Top 25 at times this season but back-to-back road losses to Vanderbilt and Kentucky suggest that the Tigers might not be very competitive in this game.

MISSOURI TIGERS AT GEORGIA BULLDOGS
CFB ODDS: GEORGIA -17
CFB TOTAL: 47

WHY THE TIGERS WILL COVER THE SPREAD

The Tigers could cover the spread because this could have the feel of a trap game for Georgia. If you look at Georgia’s schedule for the rest of the season, this is a game the Bulldogs could easily overlook as the Tigers are coming off two bad losses while Georgia absolutely has to beat No. 11 Auburn next week. The Bulldogs might show up a bit drowsy in this game, assuming they can just show up and still win comfortably, and if they do, they could find themselves in another South Carolina-like situation.

While it’s true that Missouri has fallen way short of expectations this season, they still have Kelly Bryant – even if he’s banged up – and the offense did average 38.8 points per game through their first six contests. If that’s the unit that shows up, they’ll have a shot.

WHY THE BULLDOGS WILL COVER THE SPREAD

The Bulldogs will cover the spread for a number of reasons. First, Missouri’s starting quarterback, Kelly Bryant is not healthy. Missouri coach Barry Odom said earlier this week that Bryant is on track to play but he will still probably be a game-time decision and even if he does suit up, he likely won’t be 100%. That’s what we’ve seen from him the last two games as he’s just 23-of-45 with 270 total passing yards in the last two weeks.

As he labored with a leg injury, the Missouri offense has been awful in its last two games. The Tigers were rolling through early October, but then they lost 21-14 to Vanderbilt and 29-7 to Kentucky. Their offense has been stopped cold. Georgia’s defense should have absolutely no problem corralling Missouri’s offense. Given that Georgia looked refreshed and substantially better than previous weeks against Florida on Nov. 2, the Bulldogs should no longer need to worry about the status of their offense, which awakened from the slumber of two terrible showings against South Carolina and Kentucky. Jake Fromm and his receivers made lots of key connections on third down. Order has been restored for a Georgia team which is dramatically better than Missouri.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE TOTAL

Bryant might not play, but if he can, Missouri should be able to score a modest amount of points. However, this should be a game where the Georgia offense goes off and gets right. Missouri’s defense gives up over 80 more yards on the road than at home but the bigger concern will be the run defense. They gave up 297 rushing yards to Kentucky, 150 to Vandy and 297 to Wyoming. What’s Georgia going to hang on them with their NFL-ready offensive line and their stable of backs. Look for Georgia’s best offensive performance in weeks in a blowout win and an over.

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