College Football National Championship Playoff Field Set, Odds Posted

The four teams that will compete for the College Football National Championship were announced on Sunday. Three of the teams were a foregone conclusion while the fourth is a somewhat controversial entrant. The top three seeds aren’t much of a surprise with #1 Alabama, #2 Clemson and #3 Notre Dame holding the same position they’ve got in the national rankings. The fourth and final berth went to Oklahoma and with the Sooners’ entry into the National Championship semifinals came a bit of ‘second guessing’ among fans and media.

The top three seeds finished their regular season undefeated. Alabama’s last two victories came against traditional rival Auburn on November 24 and in the SEC Championship Game over Georgia. They beat three other ranked teams during the season with the most impressive a 29-0 road win over then #3 ranked LSU. Clemson wrapped up their undefeated campaign with a 56-35 win over in-state rivals South Carolina on November 24 and an easy 42-10 win over Pittsburgh in the ACC Championship Game. Notre Dame completed their 12-0 run with a November 17 win against #12 ranked Syracuse and a victory at USC one week later.

Oklahoma locked up the final spot in the field with a victory over Texas in Saturday’s Big 12 title game. The victory served as a measure of ‘revenge’ for the Sooners only loss of the year—Texas beat them 48-45 at home on October 6. Oklahoma’s only victories against ranked opponents were against #14 Texas in the Big 12 title game and a narrow win over #13 West Virginia on November 23. Some observers still maintain that Georgia deserves the berth despite having two losses. The Bulldogs lost at LSU on October 13 and to Alabama in the SEC title game on Saturday. Georgia played a more difficult schedule than Oklahoma, compete in a significantly tougher conference and are a qualitatively superior team in many handicapper’s power ratings (including my own).

Another team with at least a nominal claim to the fourth playoff berth is the nation’s only other undefeated team—the University of Central Florida Knights. The Knights went 11-0 this year after a 12-0 season in 2017. They’ve now won 25 straight games but are ranked 8^th in the College Football Playoff Rankings and 7^th in the AP poll. Unfortunately for UCF, the quality of competition just wasn’t there to give them a higher ranking. They play in the American Athletic Conference and beat only one ranked team this season, a 38-13 win over then #24 Cincinnati.

Both National Championship Semifinal Games will be played on December 29. Alabama will face Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl in Miami, while Clemson will take on Notre Dame at the Cotton Bowl in Arlington, Texas. The semifinal winners will meet on January 7, 2019 at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California. Alabama is a -220 favorite to repeat as National Champions, while 2016 champs Clemson are priced at +310 to emerge victorious. Oklahoma is +1200 and Notre Dame +1400 to be the upset winner of the National College Football Championship.

The odds for the College Football Championship semifinal games are as follows: In the Orange Bowl, Alabama is a -14 point favorite over Oklahoma and a -525 moneyline chalk. Moneyline takeback on the Sooners is +430 with the total set at 79.5. In the Cotton Bowl, Clemson is favored by -11.5 points and a -410 moneyline favorite. Notre Dame is a +340 moneyline underdog with the total in the game set at 55.