College Football: Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Duke Blue Devils

By BetOnline November 7, 2019

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Once the No. 7 team in the country, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish have been teetering on the verge of disaster these last few weeks. The team that nearly upset Georgia on the road has been a shadow of their former selves as they nearly lost at home to a bad USC team, then got smashed by No. 19 Michigan and then needed a last-minute score to get by Virginia Tech at home. They’re again laying points this week but after failing to come close to covering the last three games, should we trust them here?

NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH AT DUKE BLUE DEVILS
CFB ODDS: NOTRE DAME -8
CFB TOTAL: 51.5

WHY THE FIGHTING IRISH WILL COVER THE SPREAD

Sure, Notre Dame has labored of late but have you seen Duke? They’ve scored just 14 and 17 points in its last two games and have lost three of their last four overall. This is a team that’s collected wins against Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Middle Tennessee State and North Carolina A&T.

The offense has really been the story for this team as they’re averaging a whopping 43.0 points per game in their wins and just 16.0 points per game when they lose. When they fail, they fail hard. When they compete offensively, they usually win.

Given that Notre Dame’s defense rebounded from a bad game against Michigan to limit Virginia Tech’s offense to 13 points (Virginia Tech scored a defensive touchdown in that game last Saturday), it is reasonable to expect the Irish to clamp down on Duke’s offense.

WHY THE BLUE DEVILS WILL COVER THE SPREAD

The Blue Devils actually thrive in the underdog roll as they’ve covered 11 of their last 15 in that spot. This week, they’re hosting a Notre Dame team the once looked like a national title contender but has been very ordinary the last few weeks.

The Irish barely beat USC, a team which just lost by 32 points to Oregon, Notre Dame got crushed by Michigan, which had been struggling up to that point in time, and the Irish were then very fortunate to escape Virginia Tech at home by one point after trailing for much of the second half. Notre Dame was favored by more than two touchdowns yet needed an 18-play, 87-yard drive with two fourth-down conversions to escape with a win.

Notre Dame is playing terrible football right now. Duke has had two weeks to prepare for this game and is at home, so they’ll have a good shot here.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE TOTAL

The inability of the Duke offense to solve the Notre Dame defense is what will likely keep this game under the number. It will be hard for Duke to move the ball consistently against the Irish.

We’ve already seen some sharp money hit this total as it opened at 53 but is now down to 51.5. Under looks like the way to go as the Irish pick up the win and cover.