College Football: Ohio State Buckeyes at Northwestern Wildcats

The Ohio State Buckeyes have been the most impressive team in college football this year. Ohio State has won all six of its games by at least 24 points, and the Buckeyes are rated as the No. 1 team in the nation per SP+. They have had a week off after thrashing Michigan State 34-10 two weeks ago, and Ohio State is out to crush another Big Ten opponent before facing the Wisconsin Badgers in Columbus next week. Ohio State will travel to face the Northwestern Wildcats in Evanston on Friday night.

OHIO STATE BUCKEYES AT NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS
CFB LINE: OHIO STATE -28
CFB TOTAL: 49

It’s no surprise that Northwestern is a four-touchdown underdog per the college football betting odds on Friday. The Wildcats have only beaten Ohio State once since 1971, registering a 33-27 win over the Buckeyes in Evanston in 2004. This line was originally 14 points in Game of the Year betting over the summer, but the Week 8 college football odds initially saw Ohio State as a 27.5-point favorite.

RECENT HISTORY

Ohio State has scored 40 points or more on Northwestern six of their last seven meetings. The Buckeyes smashed the Wildcats between 2005 and 2008, beating them by an average of 40.5 points in those four meetings and the closest loss was by 35 points. The last two regular season meetings have been close, but Ohio State crushed Northwestern 45-24 in the Big Ten Championship Game last year. Dwayne Haskins had a career day, completing 34 of 41 passes for 499 yards with five touchdowns and an interception, but Northwestern’s defense is much improved this year.

WHEN OHIO STATE HAS THE BALL

The Wildcats have the fifth best defense in college football per SP+. They are allowing just 4.7 yards per play despite playing some decent offenses, and they have a knack for grinding games to a halt. Northwestern’s defense is the only one this season to stop Wisconsin, holding the Badgers to just 243 total yards in a 24-15 loss.

This defense has seen nothing like Ohio State though. Justin Fields has more than lived up to expectations, establishing himself as a contender with 10-1 odds to win the Heisman Trophy, and he has a passing touchdown and a rushing touchdown in each of his six games with the Buckeyes.

Fields has yet to be fully let loose because Ryan Day hasn’t needed to show too much. He hasn’t thrown more than 25 passes in any of Ohio State’s first six games this year, but Fields has completed 69.5 percent of his passes for 1,298 yards with 18 touchdowns and an interception. He is averaging 5.0 YPC with eight touchdowns, and he helps pace one of the best running attacks in the game.

J.K. Dobbins is a fringe Heisman Trophy candidate with 826 rushing yards, but Day has given Master Teague III a lot of carries to keep Dobbins fresh. This offense is incredibly dynamic, and they have plenty of ways to attack opponents.

WHEN NORTHWESTERN HAS THE BALL

It’s a good thing that Northwestern’s campus is close enough to Lake Michigan to cover the stench from this offense. The Wildcats have the worst offense of any team in the Power Five. Even though Northwestern has a former five-star prospect at quarterback after Clemson’s Hunter Johnson transferred in, this offense has been anemic.

The Wildcats have completed just 49.4 percent of their passes on the year, and they are averaging 4.3 yards per pass. They have thrown two touchdowns and eight interceptions and the inability to do anything through the air has taken the power out of the run game. Northwestern is averaging just 3.6 YPC this season as opponents are pouring into the box to stop the run.

Ohio State has one of the best defenses in the country. The Buckeyes are rated fourth on this side of the ball per SP+, and they are going to completely shut down the Wildcats on offense. Northwestern has had two weeks to prepare for this defense, so they could find moderate success on their first 15 plays, but Ohio State will lock them down afterwards.

PREDICTION

The only question in this game is the margin of victory. Ohio State is much better than Northwestern, but the Buckeyes have a showdown with Wisconsin next week. They aren’t going to open the playbook too much, so Northwestern could get the cover here.

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