College Football: Penn State Nittany Lions at Minnesota Golden Gophers

The clash between Alabama and LSU is not the only meeting of undefeated teams this Saturday. The Big Ten will have the best noon game of the season when the Minnesota Golden Gophers host the Penn State Nittany Lions. Minnesota was not given any respect by the College Football Playoff Selection Committee, ranking No. 17 in the initial rankings, while Penn State was ranked No. 4. The Golden Gophers would likely vault into the top ten with a victory on Saturday, but they are nearly a touchdown underdog per the college football betting odds.

PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS AT MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS
NCAA FOOTBALL ODDS: PENN STATE -6.5
NCAA FOOTBALL TOTAL: 47

This line opened with Penn State at -7 and it quickly rose to see the Nittany Lions at -8. Over the last day, we have seen money come in on Minnesota though, moving the line back down under a touchdown. There has been a steady trickle of money on the under since this line was released moving the total from 48 to 47.

RECENT HISTORY

These teams don’t play often since they are on opposite sides of the Big Ten. Penn State squeaked past Minnesota 29-26 in their last meeting back in 2016, but the Golden Gophers emerged victorious here in 2013. The Nittany Lions have won five of the last six meetings between these two schools.

WHEN PENN STATE HAS THE BALL

This was supposed to be a rebuilding year for the Nittany Lions, but James Franklin has done an incredible job with this team. Penn State had odds of 25-1 to win the Big Ten at the start of the season, but the Nittany Lions’ odds have dropped considerably since that point. The offense has had a lot to do with that, as its ranked 14^th in the nation per SP+.

Sean Clifford has completed 62 percent of his passes this season. He is averaging 8.9 YPA, and he has thrown 20 touchdowns against just three interceptions. K.J. Hamler has been his favorite target, catching 37 passes for 620 yards and eight touchdowns, and he has emerged as one of the best playmakers in the country.

Penn State’s run game has been good, but not great. The Nittany Lions have employed a running back by committee approach so no one on the team has more than 350 rushing yards this season. Noah Cain and Journey Brown are each averaging more than 5.0 YPC, while Clifford has run more often than any other player on the team using a lot of RPOs.

The Golden Gophers have one of the better defenses in the country, but they have not faced a top quarterback all season. In fact, Minnesota has faced an opponent’s back-up quarterback in each of its last five games, casting doubt on just how good this defense might be in 2019.

WHEN MINNESOTA HAS THE BALL

Tanner Morgan has quietly been one of the best quarterbacks in the country. Morgan has completed 65.3 percent of his passes, and he is averaging 10.2 YPA this season. He has thrown 18 touchdowns against four interceptions, and the lion’s share of his passes have gone to Rashod Bateman and Tyler Johnson. Bateman and Johnson have combined to catch 74 passes for 1,270 yards and 13 touchdowns, and only one other receiver has more than 70 receiving yards.

The ground game has been solid. Rodney Smith has led the way with 889 yards and seven touchdowns, and he is averaging 5.8 YPC. Mohamed Ibrahim and Shannon Brooks have done a good job backing up Smith, helping this offense be ranked No. 8 in SP+.

Penn State’s defense is rated sixth in the country per SP+, and the Nittany Lions are surrendering just 4.0 YPC. The run defense has been the nation’s best, allowing 2.2 YPC, and the secondary has been very good too.

PREDICTIONS

A lot has been made of Minnesota’s somewhat easy schedule, but Penn State’s hasn’t been particularly difficult. The Nittany Lions’ two toughest opponents have been Iowa and Michigan, and they won both of those games by just one score each. The Golden Gophers have a great chance to win this game outright.

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