College Football Playoff Odds Update for 11/22/19

Two more undefeated teams lost last week to bring the College Football Playoff picture into focus. Baylor and Minnesota were both considered longshots despite being unbeaten, and their losses have essentially eliminated them from contention. Their CFP odds are now 150-1 for Minnesota and 250-1 for Baylor, and both teams will be double digit underdogs against whoever they face in their conference championship game, assuming they make it there.

Odds to Win the College Football Playoffs

Team	10/25 Odds	11/1 Odds	11/8 Odds	11/15 Odds	11/22 Odds
Ohio State	+350	+300	+250	+200	+200
LSU	+500	+450	+375	+250	+250
Clemson	+300	+300	+350	+300	+250
Georgia	+1400	+1200	+1000	+800	+900
Alabama	+300	+275	+275	+900	+1600
Oklahoma	+600	+2000	+2000	+2000	+2000
Oregon	+3300	+2000	+3300	+2200	+2000
Utah	+6600	+5000	+5000	+5000	+3300
Penn State	+2000	+2000	+1800	+8000	+5000
Minnesota	+12500	+10000	+10000	+5000	+15000
Baylor	+8000	+6600	+10000	+10000	+25000

The only three undefeated teams remaining are the three overwhelming favorites to claim the national championship. Ohio State has the lowest odds at +200 although the Buckeyes have the most difficult path to the playoff. They must face Penn State this Saturday before traveling to take on Michigan next week, and from there they will face either Minnesota or Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship Game.

Ohio State has been the most dominant team in the nation but playing three ranked opponents in three straight weeks is not easy. Chase Young’s return will make the No. 1 defense in the nation even more lethal though, and the Buckeyes have the benefit of knowing that they stand a very good chance of making the CFP even with a loss. That would certainly make things more challenging, but Ohio State has a better resume than Alabama, as its 42-0 win over 9-1 Cincinnati is a fantastic non-conference win.

LSU is the team that can most afford a loss. The Tigers already have wins over four different Top Ten teams, so even a shocking defeat at the hands of Texas A&M or a loss to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game would likely be overlooked by the Selection Committee due to their fantastic strength of schedule.

Joe Burrow is a -3000 favorite to win the Heisman Trophy through 10 games, and his play has made LSU a contender. The Bayou Bengals were 20-1 to win the national championship at the start of the season, but those numbers have steadily dropped with each impressive win.

Clemson is in an interesting spot. The Tigers have the easiest path to the College Football Playoff, but they cannot afford a loss. Although they are the reigning national champions, the ACC has been dreadful this season, so a defeat in either of Clemson’s last two games would put their status in doubt. It’s highly unlikely that they lose to either South Carolina or the ACC Coastal winner, but either loss is potentially devastating.

Since the initial CFP rankings were released, Georgia has been the highest ranked one-loss team. The Bulldogs are currently in position to be chosen by the Selection Committee, but they have two major problems. First, Texas A&M has a decent chance of knocking them off in Athens this week, and they should not be favored by 13 points in that game. Jake Fromm has not played well in recent weeks, and Georgia’s offense has not scored more than 27 points in five games.

The other issue is that the Bulldogs will be underdogs in the SEC Championship Game to LSU. A loss in that game will end Georgia’s chances of making it to the CFP barring a highly unlikely series of events, so there simply isn’t much value here.

Without Tua Tagovailoa, it’s highly unlikely that Alabama makes it to the CFP. The Crimson Tide are the only team to make it to the CFP in all five years of its existence, but a weak non-conference schedule and no conference championship makes their case very weak compared to others.

Oregon, Utah, and Oklahoma all have a cleaner path to the playoff than Alabama at this point. All three teams would likely be ahead of Alabama if they were to win out, but the best value lies in the Sooners. Oklahoma has struggled with both Baylor and Iowa State, but the Big 12 is a better conference than the Pac 12, and the Sooners have the stronger profile.

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