College Football Playoff Odds Update for 11/29/19

Penn State and Oregon both lost for the second time this season last weekend, knocking both schools out of the national championship race. The Nittany Lions and Ducks were both relative longshots per the college football betting odds, so those losses sealed their fate.

There are now nine teams that have a realistic chance to make the national championship, but for all intents and purposes there is just one open spot in the College Football Playoff. Ohio State, LSU, and Clemson would need a lot to go wrong to miss out on the CFP at this point, and there is a chasm between the national championship odds of those three teams and everyone else. That makes the stakes for some games on Rivalry Week sky high.

Odds to Win the College Football Playoffs

Team	11/1 Odds	11/8 Odds	11/15 Odds	11/22 Odds	11/29 Odds
Ohio State	+300	+250	+200	+200	+175
LSU	+450	+375	+250	+250	+250
Clemson	+300	+350	+300	+250	+275
Georgia	+1200	+1000	+800	+900	+1000
Alabama	+275	+275	+900	+1600	+1000
Oklahoma	+2000	+2000	+2000	+2000	+2500
Utah	+5000	+5000	+5000	+3300	+2500
Minnesota	+10000	+10000	+5000	+15000	+6600
Baylor	+6600	+10000	+10000	+25000	+15000

Even an improbable loss to That School Up North would not derail Ohio State’s national championship hopes. The Buckeyes have been so dominant throughout their first 11 games that a loss against Michigan or in the Big Ten Championship Game would not lead to Ohio State missing out on the playoff.

Ohio State is favored by 7.5 points this week against Michigan, and the Selection Committee has made it clear that the Buckeyes are the best team in the land. Although LSU has four wins against top ten opponents, Ohio State is ranked No. 1 in the eyes of the committee, so it would take two losses to knock the Buckeyes out of title contention.

LSU is in for all intents and purposes too. As long as the Tigers don’t lose against Texas A&M this week and then against Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, the Bayou Bengals will be in the CFP for the first time ever this season. The Tigers are -17 at home against the Aggies on Saturday, so Ed Orgeron and the folks in Baton Rouge are feeling great about their chances.

Their national championship odds are higher than Ohio State’s odds because the advanced metrics aren’t as impressed with the Tigers. LSU is still rated below Alabama in SP+, and the Tigers have some noticeable issues on defense.

Clemson might be the defending champion, but the Tigers are in more of a precarious spot than LSU or Ohio State. The abysmal quality of the ACC means that Clemson might not be able to afford a loss, but the Tigers are head and shoulders better than any other team in the conference. They are massive 27-point favorites against South Carolina this weekend, and they will be favored by double digits against either Virginia or Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship game.

Certain oddsmakers believe that Clemson is the best team in the country though. In hypothetical semifinal odds available at BetOnline.ag, Clemson is favored by 4.5 points over LSU and favored by one point over Ohio State. There is likely serious value in the Buckeyes and Tigers here as Clemson will likely close as an underdog in both games.

Georgia is the only team that controls its own destiny of the six remaining teams. The Bulldogs are seen as the best one loss team in the land by everybody that matters, and a win over LSU in the SEC Championship Game would punch their ticket to the playoff.

They are gargantuan favorites over a rebuilding Georgia Tech this weekend, but they will likely be underdogs by less than a touchdown against LSU in Atlanta next week. That game will decide whether the Bulldogs will be back in the CFP.

Alabama’s national championship odds remain too low. The Crimson Tide have the pedigree, but the Selection Committee is unlikely to take one loss Alabama ahead of a one loss conference champion like Utah or Oklahoma. This team needs bedlam to happen in order to make it six straight years in the CFP after Tua Tagovailoa went down with a season-ending injury, and Alabama is only a short favorite against Auburn in the Iron Bowl this weekend.

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