College Football Playoff Odds Update for October 25, 2019
The CFP betting odds on the top five teams in the country are narrowing. At the start of October, Alabama and Clemson were considered the primary favorites to win the national championship this season. Over the course of the month, we have seen the odds for Ohio State, LSU, and Oklahoma drop, and those teams are considered real contenders to bring Alabama and Clemson’s dominance to a halt.
ODDS TO WIN THE COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFFS
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Wisconsin’s stunning loss to Illinois last week led to the odds on the Badgers to win the national championship dropping like a rock. They were 16-1 to win the title, but they are now 50-1 heading into this week.
Their performance this week will determine whether they are a real contender. The Badgers are heading to Columbus to take on the Ohio State Buckeyes, and Wisconsin is a two-touchdown underdog per the college football betting odds. Ohio State is the best team Wisconsin has faced this season, and the Badgers staunch defense will be tested. They have yet to face an offense ranked in the top 50, and Ohio State has a top five offense by most standard and advanced metrics.
Speaking of the Buckeyes, they can now be lumped into the same category of primary contenders as Alabama and Clemson. Ohio State has been the most dominant team in the nation this year, so this team must be placed alongside the two favorites coming into the year. The Buckeyes have won all seven of their games by at least 24 points, and they are the No. 1 team in the nation per SP+.
Alabama and Clemson have seen their odds drop slightly. The Crimson Tide and Tigers chances have taken a bit of a hit for different reasons though. If Tua Tagovailoa were healthy, there’s no doubt that Alabama would be the lone favorite per the national championship betting odds. However, Tagovailoa suffered a high-ankle sprain in Alabama’s win over Tennessee last week, and he won’t play against Arkansas and will likely be limited against LSU in Tuscaloosa in two weeks.
Clemson’s odds have fallen due to their underwhelming performances. The Tigers have not played like a defending national champion, and they have been the least impressive of the five main contenders. However, they still must be considered among the favorites due to their incredibly easy path to the CFP. No other ACC team is rated in the top 30 of SP+, underscoring the state of the conference.
The Bayou Bengals will face their third elite opponent of the season this week when they host Auburn. LSU is a double-digit favorite per the college football betting odds in the Tiger Bowl, but LSU can afford a loss given the quality of their wins and their schedule. Much like Georgia, an LSU loss wouldn’t mean much provided the Tigers ran the table and won the SEC, as an undefeated or one-loss SEC team won’t be left out of the CFP due to the strength of the conference.
An Auburn loss would eliminate them from title contention though. The Tigers lost to Florida earlier this season, and a second conference loss would leave them unlikely to make it to the SEC Championship Game barring a complete collapse from LSU down the stretch.
Oklahoma will likely be a double-digit favorite in each of its remaining five regular season games. The Sooners have the best offense in the country, and Jalen Hurts has been yet another fantastic quarterback transfer for Lincoln Riley. This offense is averaging an absurd 7.3 YPC and 9.3 yards per play, and the defense is much improved too. They are allowing just 4.7 yards per play, making this the best Oklahoma defense we have seen in years.
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