College Football Playoffs Odds Update 11/1/19

The potential College Football Playoff field narrowed considerably last week with Auburn, Wisconsin, and Notre Dame all picking up their second loss. We’ve never had a two-loss team qualify for the CFP, and it’s highly unlikely that changes this year given the strength of the top four teams in the country. Although at least one of the top four teams will pick up another loss next week with Alabama hosting LSU, the loser of that game is still in decent shape to make the CFP and both Clemson and Ohio State might be able to afford another loss too. That’s why the College Football Playoff odds on all four teams are less than 5-1 just before the first rankings are released on Tuesday.

ODDS TO WIN THE COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFFS

Team	10/4 Odds	10/11 Odds	10/18 Odds	10/25 Odds	11/1 Odds
Alabama	+250	+275	+250	+300	+275
Clemson	+250	+275	+250	+300	+300
Ohio State	+650	+500	+500	+350	+300
LSU	+800	+700	+550	+500	+450
Georgia	+650	+700	+1400	+1400	+1200
Oklahoma	+1000	+800	+600	+600	+2000
Penn State	+4000	+3300	+3300	+2000	+2000
Oregon	+8000	+5000	+5000	+3300	+2000
Florida	+5000	+3300	+5000	+5000	+5000
Utah	+5000	+5000	+6600	+6600	+5000
Baylor	+15000	+12500	+10000	+8000	+6600

There shouldn’t be much of a change in the odds for the top four teams after this week. Alabama, Ohio State, and LSU all have byes, while Clemson is playing an FCS team in Wofford. Oklahoma and Penn State are off too, leaving Georgia and Florida has the main game with CFP ramifications.

Alabama is hoping that Tua Tagovailoa is healthy for its tilt with LSU in Tuscaloosa next week. Tagovailoa picked up a high ankle sprain in the Crimson Tide’s win over Tennessee, and he sat out of their game with Arkansas last week. The Crimson Tide beat the Razorbacks handily without him, but they will need Tagovailoa in the lineup against LSU.

Unlike previous iterations, LSU can score this year. Joe Burrow is the Heisman Trophy frontrunner at the start of November, and Alabama’s front seven can be run on. The Crimson Tide have won eight straight in this series and have given up just 73 points to the Bayou Bengals over that stretch. These Tigers can put up points though, so Alabama needs its full complement available to beat LSU.

Clemson had been tied with Alabama as co-favorites for much of the year, but the Tigers lackluster play coupled with the abysmal performance of the ACC has led to some losing faith in the defending national champions. Trevor Lawrence isn’t even on the Heisman radar anymore, and the Tigers would be an underdog against any of the other top teams on a neutral field. Clemson has by far the easiest path remaining though with its toughest test coming at home against Wake Forest in two weeks.

The Buckeyes have seen their odds drop slowly since the start of the season, and Ohio State is now being seen in the same light as Clemson and Alabama. Ohio State has won each game by at least 24 points, and this team hammered Wisconsin last week in its biggest test of the season. Chase Young is now on the short list of Heisman Trophy candidates, as the defensive end is putting up monster numbers and registered four sacks against the Badgers.

LSU is likely to be the No. 1 team in the initial CFP rankings due to its resume. The Tigers have knocked off Texas, Florida, and Auburn this year, and no team in the country has a better set of wins than the Bayou Bengals.

Burrow has been exceptional, setting some single season records through just eight games. LSU has been able to run the ball lately too, but the Tigers have not been great on defense this year. That could spoil their chances of pulling off the upset in T Town.

Georgia is favored to beat Florida in the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party this week. The loser will fall out of contention for a spot in the CFP as both teams already have an SEC loss, while the winner will become the favorite to represent the East Division in the SEC Championship Game. Jake Fromm has been awful in Georgia’s last two games, and he can’t afford to lay another egg against the Gators.

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