College Football Preview – FCS Quarterfinals

Surprisingly, there was only one upset in the FCS Playoffs Round of 16 last week. The South Dakota State Jackrabbits went on the road and knocked off the Sacramento State Hornets 24-19. The Jackrabbits will have to continue to be road warriors if they are going to make the FCS National Championship Game in Frisco, Texas in early January, as the other seven seeded teams won their games.

College Football FCS Quarterfinals Betting Odds

Montana +6.5

James Madison -6.5

Total 46

Bobby Hauck has made Montana into a powerhouse again. He took the Grizzlies to the FCS National Championship three times in six years during the 2000s, but he was never able to get over the hump. Hauck is back after failing to have any success in the FBS, and Montana went 10-2 this season with a season opening win over Washington. This offense is mediocre, but the defense is elite and ranks sixth in Defensive SP+.

James Madison looks to be too much for the Grizzlies though. They are a balanced team with a top 20 offense and a top 20 defense, and their lone loss this season came by one point to Villanova. Cole Johnson has had an incredible season, completing 67.3% of his passes for 3,274 yards with 37 touchdowns and two interceptions.

East Tennessee State +24

North Dakota State -24

Total 48

The Bison are a juggernaut once again. North Dakota State has won eight of the last 10 FCS National Championships, and they are the favorite to win it all again in 2021 although they are the No. 2 seed. They don’t have good quarterback play, but they have the best ground game in the FCS. NDSU is averaging 6.3 YPC and a whopping 281.6 YPG on the ground.

That’s not good news for an East Tennessee State defense that barely ranks inside the top 50 when it comes to stopping the run. The Buccaneers did beat Vanderbilt earlier this season, but the offense isn’t great, and the secondary is the strength of the defense.

South Dakota State -7

Villanova +7

Total 49.5

There were some raised eyebrows when South Dakota State wasn’t seeded entering the playoffs, and the Jackrabbits proved that was an error by hammering UC Davis 56-24 in the first round before beating their Big West counterpart last week. They are ranked third overall in SP+, and that’s why they are favored to beat Villanova on the road in the quarterfinals.

Villanova has not been too impressive in its last two games. The Wildcats only beat Delaware 21-13 in their regular season finale, and they beat Holy Cross 21-16 last week. Daniel Smith has had major accuracy issues over the last month, so this could be a rout.

Montana State +6.5

Sam Houston State -6.5

Total 49

This has the potential to be the best game in the quarterfinals. Sam Houston State went unbeaten in the regular season, and the Bearkats are reigning FCS national champions. Fatigue might be an issue for the No. 1 seed though, as they have now played 21 games in nine months.

Montana State has the best defense in SP+. The Bobcats are allowing 4.3 yards per play and 272.1 YPG on the season. There are concerns on offense though, as Matthew McKay was benched in favor of freshman Tommy Mellott prior to the playoffs and Mellott completed just 40% of his passes last week.

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