College Football Preview – Michigan State Spartans vs. Michigan Wolverines

This is the most important Michigan-Michigan State game in quite some time. The No. 6 Wolverines and No. 8 Spartans are both 7-0 overall and 4-0 in the Big Ten coming into their rivalry game on Halloween weekend. The winner will likely be ranked in the top five in the first College Football Playoff rankings next week, and a victory would really help Jim Harbaugh after some of the criticism he has received since showing up at Ann Arbor.

On Saturday, October 30, 2021, the Michigan State Spartans will host the Michigan Wolverines at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing, Michigan at 12 p.m. ET on FOX.

College Football Betting Odds

Michigan -4

Michigan State +4

Total 51

Although Michigan is playing on the road, the Wolverines are short favorites in this game. They have the eighth best defense in the country per SP+, and the only team that scored more than 17 points against the Wolverines was Nebraska. The offense hasn’t been great, but it has done enough to keep Michigan unbeaten.

Michigan State went on the road to beat Miami in mid-September, and the Spartans survived against Nebraska. They weren’t great in their recent win over Indiana, but Mel Tucker has received enough attention that he is now the betting favorite to be named the next LSU head coach.

When Michigan State Has the Ball

The Spartans don’t have a top 50 offense per SP+. Payton Thorne has been the definition of a game managing quarterback, and he isn’t making mistakes. He is completing 61.2% of his passes for 9.3 YPA with 15 touchdowns and four interceptions. Jayden Reed and Jalen Nailor have both been big play threats as both players have more than 500 receiving yards and at least five touchdowns.

Wake Forest transfer Kenneth Walker III is one of the best running backs in the nation. Walker has 997 yards and nine touchdowns, and he is averaging 6.6 YPC. He has paced this offense, but he struggled to run against both Nebraska and Indiana.

Michigan will likely be able to bottle up this ground game. The Wolverines are allowing opponents to run for 3.5 YPC, and they rank third in scoring defense (14.3 PPG) and eighth in total defense (298.1 YPG).

When Michigan Has the Ball

Cade McNamara is completing 63% of his passes for 7.6 YPA this season. The Wolverines are averaging less than 200 YPG through the air, but the pass game has done enough to complement a very good ground game.

Michigan is averaging 5.5 YPC and ranks fourth in the nation in run offense. This team is grinding out over 253 YPG on the ground, as Blake Corum and Hassan Haskins could both surpass 1,000 yards in this offense.

The Wolverines will need to throw the ball to beat this defense though the air. Michigan State has a top 20 run defense, but the Spartans are conceding 310.8 YPG in the passing game.

Prediction

The under is a great play in this game. Neither one of these quarterbacks is good, and both run defenses should bottle up their opponents’ ground game. This total should be in the 40s and not in the low 50s.

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