College Football: SMU Mustangs at Memphis Tigers

By BetOnline October 31, 2019

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The game between the No. 15 SMU Mustangs and No. 24 Memphis Tigers is far more important and anticipated than anyone could have imagined two months ago. SMU is one of the more amazing stories in the country as they’re now 8-0 and are in the conversation for the College Football Playoff. This will be their toughest test to date as Memphis has won five of the last six meetings and is 7-1 on the year.

Can the Ponies keep their unbeaten season alive on the road in a big game for the AAC West Division title chase?

SMU MUSTANGS AT MEMPHIS TIGERS
CFB ODDS: MEMPHIS -5.5
CFB TOTAL: 69.5

WHY THE MUSTANGS WILL COVER THE SPREAD

The SMU Mustangs think they have the better quarterback in this game – a matchup of two quarterbacks who are both transfers from other programs. Memphis’ quarterback Brady White transferred from Arizona State while SMU’s quarterback Shane Buechele transferred from Texas.

SMU is 8-0 but there have been some shaky outings, including a 21-point fourth-quarter comeback against Tulsa a few weeks ago. They came back from a 30-9 deficit and had to win in triple overtime. They also barely edged a bad Houston team on the road by three points last week, so that’s not an encouraging side. In terms of the positives, the Mustangs did win at TCU earlier this season, something they had not done since 2011 and had achieved only once since 1993.

This is SMU’s best start to a season since 1982, when the Ponies reached the Cotton Bowl with two very well-known running backs, Eric Dickerson and Craig James. With Buechele leading this offense, the Mustangs have to be very confident about their chances against a Memphis defense which allowed 41 points last week against Tulsa. The SMU offense is ranked ninth in the country, averaging 504.1 yards per game, so they’ll be licking their chops for this matchup.

WHY THE TIGERS WILL COVER THE SPREAD

Although SMU has a stellar offense, it’s not as if Memphis struggles to score points. White has thrown 20 touchdown and just four interceptions this season. He’s leading an offense that’s 24th in the country in yards per game with 455.7 and 13th in the country in points per game with 37.3.

Home-field advantage should be a big factor here as SMU hasn’t played an especially tough team on the road since the TCU game. Houston is a bad team, and SMU barely beat the Cougars on the road. SMU hasn’t played any of the especially good American Athletic Conference teams on the road. This is easily the Mustangs’ biggest challenge in conference play. Even so, SMU scores six points less on the road (40.0) than at home (46.0) and their defense gives up nearly five more on the road (30.0) than at home (25.5). Those splits should factor here – especially since Memphis has only allowed 16.7 points per game at home this year.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE TOTAL

This game could easily go over the total, but this is a highly-publicized game which will put a lot of pressure on all the top players. We saw the same thing play out last year when everyone was expecting fireworks but the final score didn’t even get to the hallway mark of the total (the score was 28-18).

Expect a lot of mistakes in this game, which will probably drag the game under the number.