College Football: Vanderbilt Commodores at Florida Gators

The Florida Gators will have an opportunity to take out some frustration on Saturday. Florida is unlikely to win the SEC East and return to the SEC Championship Game after their third straight loss to Georgia in the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, but the Gators can still clinch their second straight 10-win season. They are 7-2 and will be favored per the college football betting odds in their final three games, including this week when they host the 2-6 Vanderbilt Commodores in Gainesville.

VANDERBILT COMMODORES AT FLORIDA GATORS
CFB LINE: -26.5
CFB TOTAL: 49

This line has risen since it was released on Sunday. Florida was initially a 24.5-point favorite over Vanderbilt, but that clearly wasn’t enough points. The Gators are now favored by 26.5 points against the Commodores, and the total has risen too. This over/under was initially lined at 47, but it has since moved.

RECENT HISTORY

Vanderbilt hasn’t had much success against Florida. The Commodores have only defeated the Gators once in the last 30 years, beating them 34-17 in The Swamp in 2013. That led to Will Muschamp being fired and James Franklin being hired at Penn State, and that showcases the type of seismic shift it takes for Vandy to beat Florida.

WHEN VANDERBILT HAS THE BALL

The Commodores are unlikely to have quarterbacks Riley Neal or Mo Hasan available against the Gators on Saturday. Derek Mason told the media on Tuesday that both signal callers are still dealing with the effects of concussions, and that they are both considered doubtful.

Neal and Hasan have been Vandy’s two best quarterbacks, so that news is huge. Neal has completed 58.6 percent of his passes and is averaging 6.4 YPA for the Commodores this season. He has given a bad offense a steady hand as a grad transfer from Ball State, but he has played sparingly since Vanderbilt lost to UNLV in mid-October, throwing just 12 passes in that stretch.

Those injuries mean that Deuce Wallace is likely going to start for Vanderbilt this week. Wallace has not played well despite seeing action in six games, completed 33 of 76 passes for 217 yards with three interceptions and no touchdowns. He is completing just 43.4 percent of his passes and averaging under 3.0 YPA, and those are horrific numbers. Wallace hasn’t even been a good running threat, and he will likely struggle against a very good Florida secondary.

Vanderbilt will want to run the ball with Ke’Shawn Vaughn as much as possible. Vaughn has done a good job moving the chains considering the issues the Commodores have on offense. He is averaging 5.2 YPC and has become more of a threat to catch the ball out of the backfield, helping his quarterbacks out as needed.

The Gators are healthy on defense, and they aren’t going to allow many points against the Commodores’ one-dimensional offense as long as neither Neal nor Hasan suit up. Vanderbilt will be fortunate to get to 10 points. That Commodores’ team total is 12.5 points, so the under is a great bet here.

WHEN FLORIDA HAS THE BALL

Kyle Trask has done a great job in Dan Mullen’s offense. While Trask isn’t as much of a mobile threat as Mullen likes, he has been willing to run the ball enough that defenses have to somewhat respect his mobility, allowing other things to open up.

Trask has proven to be a solid passer. While he hasn’t been as accurate as Feleipe Franks, he has played well against much stiffer competition. Trask has completed 63.8 percent of his passes and is averaging 8.0 YPA in SEC play. He has 16 touchdowns against four interceptions, making good use of a talented receiving corps.

Lamical Perine has run well behind a mediocre offensive line, but he will get a chance to shine on Saturday. Vanderbilt’s defense is allowing 5.2 YPC, and opponents are averaging over 200 yards per game against this team. The Commodores defense should be pretty gassed given the amount of time they will be on the field, so Perine’s player prop odds should have good value.

PREDICTION

Florida can name the score in this game. The Gators have far more talent on both sides of the ball, and the Commodores are outside of the top 100 in total offense and total defense. This is the type of game where you let out frustration, so expect Florida to roll.

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