College Football: Virginia Tech Hokies at Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Notre Dame’s hopes of making it back to the College Football Playoff were dashed last week. The Fighting Irish were dismantled in the Big House, losing 45-14 to Michigan, and two losses won’t be enough to get to the CFP given their strength of schedule. The school’s best win this season was Virginia, and Notre Dame will look to get a win against the other major team from the Mother of States when they face the Virginia Tech Hokies on Saturday.

VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES AT NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH
CFB LINE: NOTRE DAME -17.5
CFB TOTAL: 57.5

The Fighting Irish might be licking their wounds following a 31-point loss, but the oddsmakers expect them to take out their frustration on the Hokies. Notre Dame is favored by a whopping 17.5 points per the college football betting odds, and that line could rise even higher before kickoff given what we have seen from Virginia Tech this season.

RECENT HISTORY

This will be just the third meeting between these two schools. Virginia Tech nipped Notre Dame 34-31 in the first meeting in 2016, and the Fighting Irish returned the favor with a 45-23 drubbing of the Hokies last season. The away team has won both of the previous games, so the Hokies hope that portends well for them in South Bend.

WHEN VIRGINIA TECH HAS THE BALL

The Hokies have been mediocre on offense this season. They are 5-2 and look set to extend the nation’s longest bowl streak in December, but this has been one of the most fortunate teams in college football. Virginia Tech is 2-5 ATS according to the NCAAF betting odds, and this team hasn’t won a game by more than 17 points despite playing two FCS teams and lowly Old Dominion.

Hendon Hooker replaced Ryan Willis as Virginia Tech’s quarterback, and he is expected to start against Notre Dame. Hooker suffered a leg injury in the Hokies’ six overtime victory against North Carolina two weeks ago, but indications are that he has recovered well enough to be under center following the bye week.

Hooker is a freshman, but he has been more explosive than Willis and he has turned the ball over less too. Willis threw five interceptions in 117 passes, while Hooker has yet to throw an interception since taking over as the starter. He is a very good runner too, and that will help against a very good Notre Dame defense.

The Irish were gashed on the ground by Michigan last week, and Virginia Tech would love to do the same thing. The Wolverines ran the ball a whopping 57 times for 303 yards, but the Hokies haven’t had the same success on the ground through the first two months of this year. Virginia Tech is averaging just 3.4 YPC this season which is good for 111th in the country.

WHEN NOTRE DAME HAS THE BALL

Ian Book seems to have regressed. Brian Kelly thought he had one of the top quarterbacks in the country coming into the season, but Book has not had the same impact that he did in 2018. Book’s completion percentage is nine points lower than it was last year, and he is averaging almost a full yard less per attempt.

Book was abysmal against Michigan’s defense last week. He completed just 8 of his 25 passes for 73 yards, and his struggles against Power Five teams have been pronounced. In five games against Power Five teams this season, he has completed just 55.9 percent of his passes for a measly 5.7 YPA. His stats have been greatly helped by monster performances against New Mexico and Bowling Green, so that might make the Hokies an enticing pick to cover the spread.

Kelly will want to protect his quarterback by calling plenty of run plays. Tony Jones Jr. has had some success moving the chains, averaging 6.5 YPC on the season. Virginia Tech’s front seven has been porous with defensive coordinator Bud Foster in his final season in Blacksburg, so Jones stands to find some holes to exploit.

PREDICTION

The Fighting Irish have not been reliable against Power Five teams, but the Hokies have yet to play a team anywhere as good as the Irish. Virginia Tech was hammered 45-10 by Duke and lost to a bad Boston College team, so it’s hard to have much faith in them. The under might be the right play here.

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