Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs. Houston Cougars New Mexico Bowl Preview

The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors are used to playing on Christmas Eve, but typically in the Hawaii Bowl in Aloha Stadium. On this Christmas Eve, they’re playing in Frisco, Texas, in a relocated New Mexico Bowl. The state of New Mexico has been one of the stricter states in the United States in terms of COVID-19 restrictions and protocols. The game was originally supposed to be held in Albuquerque, but the state prohibited fans from attending games while also placing severe limits on group activities of any kind. This caused the game to move to Texas, where fans can attend. The New Mexico Bowl will presumably return to Albuquerque next year. Meanwhile, it’s time for Hawaii and the Houston Cougars to finish their pandemic season. Hawaii went 4-4 in eight regular-season games. Houston went 3-4 in seven games and had several games canceled due to COVID-19. The Cougars were one of the teams most affected by the pandemic in terms of game postponements, delays, and cancellations.

Details

Opening Line: Houston -11.5

Current Line: Houston -10.5

Over/Under: 59.5

Location: Toyota Stadium, Frisco, Texas

Start Time: 3:30 PM ET

Last Meeting: Hawaii 54 vs. Houston 48 (12/25/03, Hawaii Bowl)

Overview

These two teams have played quality competition in their most recent games. Hawaii played Mountain West Conference champion San Jose State, plus Potato Bowl champion Nevada, perennial Mountain West contender Boise State, and above-average program San Diego State, in addition to bottom-feeding UNLV. The Houston Cougars played Memphis, No. 7-ranked Cincinnati, UCF, and Navy in recent games, along with a game against lowly South Florida. The Mountain West, Hawaii’s conference, has been very competitive, but the AAC, Houston’s conference, has a higher level of play. Cincinnati went unbeaten this season and won the Group of Five championship for a berth in the Peach Bowl against Georgia. Houston also lost to top-15 team BYU earlier in the year.

One statistic which stands out is that Hawaii’s defense allows 231 rushing yards per game. That’s an enormous number. Houston’s run defense isn’t great, but at 173 yards allowed per game, that’s almost 60 fewer yards than Hawaii concedes. That figures to give Houston an edge in this contest.

Both quarterbacks are talented. Chevan Cordeiro of Hawaii and Clayton Tune of Houston threw for nearly 2,000 yards in shortened pandemic schedules this season. Hawaii’s weak run defense, however, figures to give Houston the chance to run the ball and set up the deep pass.

All in all, it’s going to be tougher for Hawaii to match up physically with Houston. The Cougars have a higher ceiling than the Rainbow Warriors. The game’s outcome depends on whether Houston is mentally fresh after a brutal late-season loss to Memphis on a last-play field goal.

Trends

– Hawaii is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games after gaining more than 450 total yards in its previous game.

– Hawaii is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games overall.

– Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following an ATS loss.

Bottom Line

The stop-and-start nature of Houston’s season, with so many COVID-19 postponements and a few cancellations, will likely cause the Cougars to be very hungry in this game. Bowl games are often decided less by skill, and more on who wants to be there and play hard. Houston has the advantage there, but we’ll see what happens on the field.

Pick: Houston 38, Hawaii 24