Marshall And South Florida Do Battle In Gasparilla Bowl College Football Action

Early college football bowl games continue on Thursday with the Gasparilla Bowl in St. Petersburg, Florida. The bowl’s promoters are smart enough to make sure that a team with a local ‘rooting interest’ plays in this game whenever possible. Last year, it was Florida International University in this game getting whipped by Temple 28-3. This year, they’ve got South Florida in this game facing Marshall. South Florida has at least one advantage—home field advantage. Not just de facto home field advantage but the real deal—they play their home games at Raymond James Stadium which is the host venue for the Gasparilla Bowl.

The Gasparilla Bowl serves as something of an ‘opening act’ for the Outback Bowl on New Year’s Day. It’s been around since 2008 but has only existed under the current name since 2017. The history of this bowl is likely of more interest to sports business observers than college football fans. The game was originally known as the magicJack Bowl (yep, that’s how they spell their name) thanks to a sponsorship from the VOIP long distance phone company. Since magicJack didn’t renew their sponsorship the game became the St. Petersburg Bowl Presented by Beef O’Brady’s in 2009. That unwieldy name was shortened to the Beef O’ Brady’s Bowl in 2010 and would continue under this name for several years. In 2014, the sponsorship was picked up by Bitcoin services company BitPay and the bowl was known as the Bitcoin St. Petersburg Bowl. BitPay was also ‘one and done’ as a sponsor and the game continued as the St. Petersburg Bowl in 2015 and 2016. In 2017, Bad Boy Mowers became the naming sponsor and changed the name again, this time to the Gasparilla Bowl which references the annual Gasparilla Pirate Festival. This is the first year for the game at Raymond James Stadium as it was previously held at Tropicana Field.

Sometimes handicapping college football games is a matter of matchup analysis and looking at the ‘X’s and O’s’. All you need to know about this game can be found on the betting board. One thing that immediately jumps out is the NCAA football betting line on this game which has Marshall as a -3 point favorite. Considering that the game is being played on the Bulls’ home field that’s not a ringing endorsement for South Florida. Doing a little ‘pointspread math’ it suggests that on a neutral field Marshall would be a -6 or -7 favorite. Statistically speaking, Marshall has the better defense (#23 in FBS total defense against #104 for USF) and South Florida the better offense (#32 in total offense against #81 for Marshall).

Statistics must be viewed in context and that further weakens the case for South Florida. The Bulls were 7-5 SU this year but an anemic 4-8 ATS. To be fair, Marshall had essentially the same record (8-4 SU/4-8 ATS) but its the way that South Florida put their season together that is the primary concern. The Bulls opened the season 7-0 SU but lost their last five games. They dropped big margins on overmatched teams during their winning run but averaged less than 20 points per game during their losing streak (19.8 PPG). USF QB Blake Barnett missed two of the last three games and his replacement Chris Oladokun. Barnett’s status for this game is described as ‘iffy’ and he’s now got a tweaked ankle to go with his shoulder ailment. No matter which quarterback is under center they’ll likely be running for their life. South Florida ranked #107 in sacks allowed and they’re facing a top ten run defense.

The final nail in the coffin for South Florida? Huge coaching edge for Marshall. Bulls’ offensive coordinator Sterling Gilbert has left for greener pastures and it wasn’t like he was a play calling genius. Special teams/tight ends coach Justin Burke will make his play calling debut. On the other sideline, Marshall’s Doc Holliday not only has a cool name but is 5-0 SU/ATS in bowl games. South Florida’s head coach Charlie Strong has never been a great ‘game coach’ and he’s out of his league here. When USF players are suggesting that ‘trickery’ is their best chance of winning it’s a clear sign to go the other way.

BET MARSHALL -3 OVER SOUTH FLORIDA