PREDICTING THE DEFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR

BY ADAM GREENE

Like its offensive counterpart, by the end of the season we’ve all pretty much figured out who’s going to be named the Defensive Rookie of the Year. The great thing about last year’s winner, Washington Football Team edge rusher Chase Young, is it looked like he’d claim it when the year began (and I predicted as much) and all he did was meet expectations, recording 44 tackles, 10 for a loss, 7.5 sacks and made his first Pro Bowl.

You could say that about a lot of the past DPotY because they were the perceived best pass rusher in their respective drafts and backed it up their rookie seasons. 2019’s Nick Bose and his brother Joey in 2016 led the whole way. In fact, edges and defensive linemen have dominated this award since 2010 with just two linebackers, Luke Kuechly in 2012 and Darius Leonard in 2018 and one defensive back, Marshon Lattimore in 2017 hoisting the trophy.

The rest? Ndamukong Suh in 2010, Von Miller in 2011, Sheldon Richardson in 2013 and Aaron Donald in 2014.

But this time, there’s no dominant pass rusher or interior defensive lineman in this past draft. At least, none that leapt off the screen when you watched them. So this could be wide open.

Still, somebody’s going to win it. Let’s try to figure out who it will be.

Here’s your contenders according to the odds:

Jamin Davis +400

Micah Parsons +550

Jaelan Phillips +700

Jaycee Horn +1000

Kwity Paye +1200

Patrick Surtain II +1200

Zaven Collins +1200

Jaremiah Owusu-Koramoah +1200

Gregory Rousseau +1800

Jayson Oweh +2000

Azeez Ojulari +2200

Asante Samuel Jr. +2200

Caleb Farley +2500

Trevon Moehrig-Woodard +2500

Christian Barmore +2500

Greg Newsome II +2800

Nick Bolton +2800

Jabril Cox +4000

Baron Browning +4000

Eric Stokes +5000

Joe Tryon +5000

Payton Turner +5000

Ronnie Perkins +5000

Joseph Ossai +5000

Davis, the favorite, was the No. 19 overall pick by Washington, who boasted one of the best defenses in the league last year. That, maybe more than anything, has put him atop the list. The problem there is, they have strong players all over and he could be an elite player and be surpassed, numbers-wise, by a guy on an inferior team.

Do stats count for everything? No. But are you going to give it to him with 90 tackles when Micah Parsons or Zaven Collins have 130? Probably not.

Your highest odds for a pass rusher are for Jaelan Philips, the No. 18 overall pick. He could be a solid choice, not only because they love to give this award to edge rushers, but the fact that he landed on a potential playoff team and is slated to start. The better the Miami Dolphins do, the higher profile Philips should have. He finished his one year at The U with 15.5 sacks and 45 tackles. Obviously, numbers like that would absolutely do it, but no one should expect him to post those as a rookie.

BUT, keep in mind he’ll be playing two games against a rookie QB, Zach Wilson, a game against the Jacksonville Jaguars and fellow rookie Trevor Lawrence. He’ll line up against the Houston Texans and Carolina Panthers. Those could be some multiple sack games for a guy already on a defense with some solid talent. This is what got Young the award last year.

That could make Phillips your best bet with a solid +700 payout. Here’s the rub, as Shakespeare would say, Gregory Rousseu, his fellow Miami Hurricane a year removed, is in a similar situation with the Buffalo Bills. And while the Dolphins could be a playoff team, the Bills almost certainly will be. If Rousseau can edge out Mario Addison, and he should, he could put up some big numbers in not only AFC East games, but in games with serious playoff implications in prime time. Rousseah opted out last season because of COVID-19, but in 2019 put up better numbers than Phillips did in 2020; 54 tackles, 19.5 for a loss, 15.5 sacks. Rousseu is worth a +1800 payout.

Could a corner sneak in? It’s hard to tell. Nearly all the first rounders should start and get their shot. I don’t expect the Panthers to be good, so Horn (+1000) would need a monster season to get in the mix. Surtain II (+1200) and Farley (+2500) could both be on playoff teams (Farley almost definitely). Stokes will probably be a No. 3 corner with the Green Bay Packers, who are still loaded on defense. I don’t see the opportunities there for him.

Lattimore, in his 2017 DRotY campaign, had 52 tackles, five interceptions, one defensive touchdown and played on a NFC South division champion. That’s an incredible season and as good as Lattimore has been since, making the Pro Bowl two more times, he’s never matched those numbers.

The guy that could sniff those stats is Surtain II, who will play on a Vic Fangio defense with one of the best fronts in the game. Bradley Chubb and a healthy Von Miller could create plenty of QB mistakes that Surtain II could capitalize on.

You want a dark horse with a massive payout? How about defensive end Payton Turner, selected 28^th overall by the New Orleans Saints. Turner is sitting on the depth chart behind budding draft bust Marcus Davenport, the guy the Saints gave up multiple first round picks to get in 2018. In that time, Davenport has recorded a total of 12 sacks and just 1.5 last season. The Saints are a popular team on TV and could be in the Wild Card running the whole way. If Davenport continues on his downward trajectory, Turner could sneak in there and do something. If he nabs the trophy, he’ll pay you at +5000.

For my money, I like Phillips and Rousseau about the same and don’t see the problem putting a little scratch on both.

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