San Diego State and Ohio Tangle In Texas As College Football Bowl Season Continues

If you weren’t paying close attention you’d be excused for thinking that this game is being held in the home state of the SDSU Aztecs. The ‘Frisco Bowl’ doesn’t exactly evoke images of the ‘Lone Star State’ but that’s exactly where it’s being held. More specifically, it’s in Frisco, Texas at Toyota Stadium. Frisco is a suburb 30 minutes North of Dallas that has the distinction of being named Money Magazine’s ‘Best Place to Live’ for 2018.

My doubts about Frisco being the ‘best place to live’ notwithstanding, there’s a football game taking place here on Wednesday night. It’s definitely a strange matchup for a bowl game held in the heart of Texas but the DXL Frisco Bowl will showcase Mountain West entrant San Diego State facing MAC member Ohio. This is the second annual Frisco Bowl and the local sports media is working hard to spin it into something exciting while highlighting the local ties of players from each team. Here’s a great lesson in spin found in a quote from the Dallas News SportsDay:

San Diego boasts a two-headed QB monster of senior Christian Chapman and Ryan Agnew. The latter played QB for Southlake Carroll from 2012-14, passing for more than 6,900 yards and running for more than 2,200 more during that span.

It’s never a good sign when a game preview touts a college quarterback’s high school stats. Hard to blame them because SDSU is a vintage Rocky Long coached team meaning a nasty defense combined with an offense bordering on inept. This year’s SDSU team might be one of the best defenses he’s ever coached particularly against the run where they rank #4 nationally. It also might be one of the most pitiful offenses he’s ever coached which covers a lot of ground. The Aztecs are ranked #108 out of 129 FBS teams in total offense. The ‘two headed monster’ described in the previous quote is the ‘catalyst’ for the #98 passing attack in FBS. Keep in mind that the majority of the teams below SDSU are rush oriented teams. For example, they finished just ahead of Appalachian State ranking #15 in rushing offense. Unfortunately for the Aztecs they ranked #74 in rushing offense at 162.4 yards per game. If you’re now surmising that a team which can’t run the ball or pass the ball effectively doesn’t score a lot of points go to the head of the class. SDSU is #112 in scoring offense putting up 22.3 points per game.

The SDSU offensive ineptitude is a problem since it makes the job of a stout Aztec defense that much more difficult. They’ll struggle to stay off the field and that could be deadly against a Bobcat team that ranked #10 in the country in scoring offense. Typically, in a ‘contrast of styles’ matchup I go with the defense. SDSU is something of a ‘one trick pony’ on defense—they’re physical and good at shutting down the run. That means that Ohio will focus on the passing attack and they’ve got a fairly well balanced offense when they need it. They’d prefer to run the ball (#9 rushing offense in FCS) but the game plan here is crystal clear—pass in the first half and then start establishing the rush in the second when the Aztec defense is starting to tire. How else would you play a team that boasts the #4 rushing defense in FCS but ranks only #74 against the pass? For all of their defensive acumen the Aztecs have a negative turnover ratio (-3) so they’re not a ‘playmaking’ unit.

Ohio is well coached by veteran Frank Solich and a much better balanced team. That will be enough to win (and cover) this game. Statistically, SDSU is a nightmare averaging just ½ point more than they allowed and going 3-6 against the college football pointspread this year. They went 1-4 SU/ATS in their final five games and a couple of the teams the teams they lost to are ghastly—they lost to Hawaii as a -18.5 favorite and even managed to lose at home to UNLV team as a -24 point chalk. Aside from their win in the rivalry game against Nevada the other teams UNLV beat this year? Try Prairie View and UTEP. As a rule, you just shouldn’t bet on teams that can’t beat UNLV on their home field.

BET OHIO -2.5 OVER SAN DIEGO STATE