The coming college football season will involve a complicated, cluttered race in the Mountain West. Hawaii won the division last season but now faces all sorts of questions for 2020. A lot of different outcomes seem possible.
SAN DIEGO STATE AZTECS
ODDS: +150
The Aztecs welcome back Brady Hoke, who coached the team a decade ago before taking the open head coaching job at Michigan. Hoke replaces Rocky Long, the very successful head coach who wanted to downscale and move back to his old job of defensive coordinator at New Mexico. The Aztecs have experienced and tested offensive skill position players but are green and inexperienced on the offensive line. How well the offensive line falls into place will probably determine the trajectory of the season. The defense isn’t fully decimated but loses a few of the important players who carried the group in terms of statistical production and overall responsibility. The Aztecs will sink or swim based on their offense, which has been prone to having disastrous games in which nothing goes right. SDSU’s best bet to win the division is that every other team will falter to a worse degree.
NEVADA WOLF PACK
ODDS: +300
The Wolf Pack won a number of close games last season, so while they are the second favorite in these odds listings, they might be overvalued. The argument to make for Nevada winning the division is that the offense and the secondary are both nearly intact from last year, with very few departures. Pass defense should be solid. Defensive line is the main question with this team. If the pass rush can’t get to opposing quarterbacks, the secondary’s strong pass coverage will become less significant. If Nevada can pressure the other team’s quarterback, the defense could be very formidable. The Wolf Pack appear to be the one team in good position to challenge San Diego State.
HAWAII RAINBOW WARRIORS
ODDS: +350
The Rainbow Warriors welcome coach Todd Graham to the islands. Hawaii’s former coach, Nick Rolovich, guided the team to the West title last season, but he then jumped to Washington State in the Pac-12. That’s a real loss, but Graham is a good replacement. Graham won the 2013 Pac-12 South Division championship as the head coach at Arizona State. He made Tulsa a highly competitive program over a decade ago. He is a competent coach who inherits a returning quarterback who started in a few games last season and played meaningful minutes in several other games. Hawaii won’t collapse this season, but the lack of a returning defensive line and secondary – with a lot of bodies needing to be replaced – means the ‘Bows aren’t a good bet to win the division.
FRESNO STATE BULLDOGS
ODDS: +600
The Bulldogs thrived when Kalen DeBoer was their offensive coordinator a few seasons ago. DeBoer went to Indiana last season and fixed the Hoosiers’ stagnant offense. Now he is back in Fresno as the head coach, replacing former boss Jeff Tedford. The situation DeBoer inherits is not good. There is no returning starting quarterback and the defensive line needs an overhaul. DeBoer should make Fresno State into a very good team with a highly competent offense… but not this season. There is too much damage to repair in only one year. This is at least a two-year fixer-upper.
SAN JOSE STATE SPARTANS
ODDS: +700
The Spartans need to replace starting quarterback Josh Love. They have to replace their linebackers, who were the heart of the defense in 2019. The receivers are good, but the offense is generally wobbly and might need a lot of time to learn how to play together. There are too many question marks with this roster on both sides of the ball to expect a serious division title challenge.
UNLV RUNNING REBELS
ODDS: +3300
The whole defense needs to be completely rebuilt, with very few returning starters from last season. First-year head coach Marcus Arroyo, who took over for Tony Sanchez, will learn on the job this year and try to build something for 2021.
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