Utah State Battles North Texas As College Football Bowl Season Kicks Off In New Mexico

The New Mexico Bowl is the highlight of the opening day of 2018 college football bowl action as Utah State takes on North Texas. The game is being played in Albuquerque, New Mexico at Dreamstyle Stadium. That’s the home of the University of New Mexico’s football team which has recently sold naming rights to the Dreamstyle Remodeling Company. This is the 13th annual New Mexico Bowl and the first trip to the game for the Mean Green of North Texas. Utah State played in this bowl in 2014, a 21-6 Aggie victory over UTEP. This is the 7th bowl trip in eight seasons for Utah State and the third straight for North Texas.

The big storyline of this game is the coaching upheaval at Utah State. Leveraging one of the best season performances by the Aggies in recent years both head coach Matt Wells and offensive coordinator David Yost are ‘moving on up’. Actually, they’re heading to Texas Tech to take over the Red Raiders’ football program replacing former head coach Kliff Kingsbury who is the new offensive coordinator at the University of Southern California. Neither former Aggie coach will be involved here and the team will be led by defensive coordinator Frank Maile.

No real concern about the absence of Wells or Yost since the team’s offensive system is well established and very potent. Led by quarterback Jordan Love, the Aggies lit up the scoreboard as the #11 total offense at the FBS level of the NCAA (492.5 yards per game). Utah State was very effective at cashing in this yardage for points ranking #3 in scoring offense at 47.2 trailing only Alabama and Oklahoma. The Aggie defense wasn’t as formidable as the offense but did a credible enough job keeping Utah State’s opponents from turning games into a track meet as they ranked #38 in scoring defense (23 PPG against).

Some serious reservations about North Texas despite their glossy 9 win season. Their ATS performance was nowhere near as impressive and particularly down the stretch. The Eagles were just 4-8 ATS with three of the covers coming early in the season. That means they finished their regular season failing to cover in five straight games and 7 of their last 8. Their inability to win by a decent margin against substandard opponents like UTSA and UTEP could become very problematic against an offensive juggernaut like Utah State.

The Mean Green defense doesn’t seem to have much of a shot at stopping Jordan Love and company. North Texas does have the #31 ranked scoring defense in the country allowing just 21.8 PPG but that says more about the quality of offenses they faced than it does about their own ability. The defense became more porous as the year progressed and before a decent showing in their final game of the year they went through a three game stretch where they looked awful against substandard opposition. The nadir was a 34-31 SU loss to Old Dominion that finished the season 4-8 SU as a -15.5 road favorite. A defense that struggled to contain Florida Atlantic and Old Dominion will likely get run off the field by the Aggies.

Simply put, North Texas is taking a big step up in class and likely playing the best team they’ve faced all year. It’s certainly the best offense they’ve seen and you can make a compelling case that Love is the most talented quarterback they’ve lined up against. Utah State, meanwhile, has played a number of better teams than this during the season including a very competitive effort at Michigan State, a decisive win against BYU in Provo and in the Mountain West championship game loss to Boise State. After facing Boise State’s high quality athletes North Texas will be a huge drop in class.

We’ll throw in a final ‘X factor’ that further solidifies our position on Utah State. Denver may have the nickname as the ‘Mile High City’ but Albuquerque sits at a lofty 5,312′ feet above sea level. Utah State plays their home games in Logan, Utah at 4,534′ above sea level. North Texas plays their home games in suburban Dallas at 430′ above sea level. The Mean Green could be huffing and puffing in the second half and that’s not good against an offense like Utah State’s. Game day weather should be excellent meaning that the ‘Over’ 68 looks like the play. In many of these early bowl games the smart strategy is to take the points. This doesn’t look like one of them. The current college football betting line of -7.5 looks short for such a capable offense.

BET UTAH STATE -7.5 OVER NORTH TEXAS